On his new thefutureof.net site, Gerd Leonhard predicts these things for the future of the music business:
- CD prices will drop to $ 5 (and less)
Mechanical Royalties and Performance Royalties will be integrated, and revenue sharing schemes will replace today’s fee schedules
Record stores will no longer focus on selling music
(Traditional) Radio will become irrelevant
Music is going back to its roots by becoming a service (again), not a product
Music companies will be utilities
Performing right organizations (PROs) as we know them will vanish
The lifetime of copyright will be decreased to somewhere between 5 and 25 years
The global dominance of the ‘Western Pop Music Monopoly’ will come to an end
Niche markets become powerful microcosms and will eventually overtake the macro markets
Once you are in the site, click on “Music Business: Predictions” for explanations. It’s a brave new world.