Saturday , July 20 2024

2004 Election Exit Polls: It’s Official, They Sucked Eggs

Confirming the obvious, an analysis conducted by the the research firms responsible for the $10 million Election Day exit poll system (sponsored by ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN and the Associated Press) verified they were the most inaccurate of any of the last five presidential elections, highlighted by “procedural problems compounded by the refusal of large numbers of Republican voters to be surveyed.”

“There were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry … and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush,” said Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research and Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International.

“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average within-precinct error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters,” they said.

As all who followed the returns election night know, the national exit poll showed Kerry leading Bush by 51 percent to 48 percent, but when all the votes were counted, those numbers were almost exactly reversed. Mitofsky and Lenski are continuing to examine exit polling in the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, where the poll results were particularly inconveniently off.

The most ridiculous part of all this were the claims made by the hopeful and deluded that the exit polls HAD to be right and therefore this was further proof of election fraud and the existence of Atlantis.

Supporting the inquiry conducted by the Cleveland Plain Dealer, they also found no evidence of fraud resulting from the rigging of voting equipment, nor evidence of Atlantis.

The litany of factors and problems include:

-exit polls in precincts where polltakers were physically farther away from the polls were less accurate than those where interviewers were closer

-bad weather conditions held down cooperation rates

-there were more young people working as interviewers in 2004 — half were under 34 — and they had more success interviewing Kerry supporters than Bush supporters, and they were also too inexperienced and needed more training

-programming errors were discovered and corrected in the afternoon of Election Day which “overstated the proportion of women in the electorate,” and access to the computer system was limited for nearly two hours late on election night.

The bottom line is the character of the election was misrepresented for much of Election Day via the media and the Internet, perhaps even altering the outcome of the vote as individual voters responded to the incorrect “information.”

About Eric Olsen

Career media professional and serial entrepreneur Eric Olsen flung himself into the paranormal world in 2012, creating the America's Most Haunted brand and co-authoring the award-winning America's Most Haunted book, published by Berkley/Penguin in Sept, 2014. Olsen is co-host of the nationally syndicated broadcast and Internet radio talk show After Hours AM; his entertaining and informative America's Most Haunted website and social media outlets are must-reads: Twitter@amhaunted,, Pinterest America's Most Haunted. Olsen is also guitarist/singer for popular and wildly eclectic Cleveland cover band The Props.

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