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Yeah, the GDP Is Growing

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The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) updates the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) each quarter. The BEA issues three reports each quarter:

  1. Advance Report: Issued one month after the quarter ends, but it can vary from the Third, or Final report because all of the trade and business inventory data have not been received.
  2. Second Report: Issued two months after the end of the quarter, and is fairly accurate.
  3. Third Report: Issued three months after the end of the quarter, and is usually a fine tuning of the Second Report.

A GDP growth rate of between 2 percent and 3 percent is ideal because it is fast enough to provide enough jobs, but not so fast the growth rate will create inflation.

Now that we have some perspective on what GDP growth rate is desirable, let’s examine the Third Report GDP growth rate since Obama has been president:

  • Q1 2012 GDP growth rate: 1.9 percent
  • Q4 2011 GDP growth rate: 3.0 percent
  • Q3 2011 GDP growth rate: 1.8 percent
  • Q2 2011 GDP growth rate: 1.3 percent
  • Q1 2011 GDP growth rate: 1.9 percent
  • Q4 2010 GDP growth rate: 3.1 percent
  • Q3 2010 GDP growth rate: 2.6 percent
  • Q2 2010 GDP growth rate: 1.7 percent
  • Q1 2010 GDP growth rate: 2.7 percent
  • Q4 2009 GDP growth rate: 1.8 percent
  • Q3 2009 GDP growth rate: 2.2 percent
  • Q2 2009 GDP growth rate: -0.7 percent
  • Q1 2009 GDP growth rate: -5.5 percent

The GDP growth rate since Q1 2009, when President Barack Hussein “kill list” Obama took office, is 1.37 percent. But, you Obama supporters scream, Obama inherited the Q1 2009 GDP growth rate. OK, we’ll drop that one out, as well as add the Q2 2012 “BEA estimated” growth rate. These figures will more reflect Obama’s economic policies. Still, the Obama economic policies GDP growth rate is 1.91 percent.

For perspective, the GDP growth rate under George Walker Bush, no economic bargain, was 1.6 percent. A 2.6 percent GDP growth rate means the economy is out of recession and not in danger of a double-dip recession. A 3 percent GDP growth rate is needed to create jobs.

Speaking of creating jobs, Gus Faucher, director of macroeconomics at Moody’s Analytics acknowledged that it takes longer these days for economic growth to translate into job gains. He said, “Once you get GDP growth, you will get job growth.” Yes, I must agree with Faucher. There has been, as measured by GDP growth, very little, if any, economic growth. And there has been very little, if any, job creation. The present “official” U-3 unemployment rate is 8.2 percent, well above what Obama promised if his stimulus (you know, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) was passed.

The 2nd quarter of 2012 doesn’t look much better: the advance estimate released by the BEA is 1.5 percent. But that rate beat many economists’ forecast of 1.2 percent growth.

In 2009, Obama told Matt Lauer, host of NBC’s Today show, that, regarding his $787 billion stimulus ($814 billion by CBO estimate) “If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.” Let’s see. With Q2 2012 not looking too good, Q3 2012 had better be a real whopper, or he just may be correct.

But, according to an economy and polling data-based forecasting model developed by Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University in Atlanta, GA: “It puts Obama just barely above the break-even point.” We all know how much faith y’all Obama supporters place in forecasts. Y’all dismiss any forecast not favorable to him. But wait, this one is different, it’s accurate! Yeah, sure. All you Obama supporters wish!

But that’s just my opinion.

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  • Arch Conservative

    “Ah, but who cares about teachers, firefighters, police? Who needs ’em?”

    Just can’t put the DNC playbook down huh Glenn?

    You know whenever I’m feeling insecure or bad about something in my own life all I have to do to cheer up is visit this site and remember that there are people like Glenn in the world.

  • troll

    Glenn Contrarian – how do you get from Angry Bear’s figures to your claim that the (so-called) private sector is not doing badly?

    thus eg it’s my understanding that manufacturing is still better that a million jobs short of ‘breaking even’ with recession losses

  • Care to re-post that last one, Glenn? It wasn’t that you didn’t close the link; you copy-pasted the quote, not the URL.

  • Glenn Contrarian

    crap. sorry for not closing out the link.

  • Glenn Contrarian

    Again, Warren doesn’t show – because he doesn’t know and refuses to see – the big picture, namely, that if we ONLY look at private sector growth:

    Three years from the economic bottom real business fixed investment is up some 18.0%, or about the same as during the Clinton years. In contrast, during the “Bush Investment lead Boom” it was up only up 6.9%, or about a third of the current cyclical rise.

    The difference, sir, is NOT that the private sector’s doing badly – they’re NOT. What’s doing very poorly (thanks to some rabid Republican state legislatures) is the PUBLIC sector where we’ve lost several hundreds of thousands of middle-class jobs. Ah, but who cares about teachers, firefighters, police? Who needs ’em? None of them are worth the Precious Tax Dollars that Warren would have to spend for them anyway, right?