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Why Obama Can Still Win. For Now

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Anyone paying attention to the 2012 presidential campaign (especially those of us who have no interest in watching the Oscars) has to be marveling at the good fortune being enjoyed by the inauspicious incumbent. No matter which of the Republican candidates is put up against him, Obama continues to remain in play even if he’s sometimes seen by the latest polling as being slightly behind. 

Let’s address the alleged accomplishments of the incumbent before we move on. No matter who Obama is compared to, he doesn’t run away with the election. The reason for this is simple: the public isn’t buying the bragging. As brooklynbadboy wrote in his Daily Kos diary today (2/26/12), “…the country has not taken great confidence in President Obama’s economic policies in his first term. Those policies almost, and still may, cost him the White House.” Those loud bangs you hear are the outraged jaws of Obamabots hitting the floor.

If Obama had really done as well as his adherents like to boast, the margin of error in any poll wouldn’t rival the gap between the candidates that appears from time to time. This fact should bother Obama supporters (which as you regular readers know doesn’t include me). It certainly bothers the leadership of the Republican Party that their clown show isn’t getting anywhere against Obama. They need a hero, not a slate of zeros. Political strategist James Carville, speaking on CNN as reported February 24, insists that these big wigs “want the [candidate] ‘children’ to behave themselves“.

A couple of weeks ago, Advocacy Media consultant Don Ringe facetiously made light of this GOP nightmare, and declared in the Huffington Post that Jeb Bush was the Republican Party’s Invisible Juggernaut, projecting him emerging from the backroom dealing at Tampa’s convention as the 2012 presidential nominee.

Just this weekend, this no longer seems so far-fetched as it once might have. The Ayatollah of Pennsylvania apparently has the GOP bigwigs very nervous, and hearing, according to The Grist’s Lisa Hymas, that Rick Santorum might be attacking the Pope for being a radical environmentalist can’t be helping reduce their anxiety any.

But these GOP candidates aren’t children even if they are acting like them at times. Hence the desire by the GOP bigwigs for a white knight: Jeb. While this wish may well be a “desperation fantasy” as Truthout declares it, Jeb isn’t helping to still the waters with his recent comments as reported on CBS and on FOX.

If one reads the comment threads attached to any article regarding Jeb, his recent comments, and the possibility of him being nominated, it’s hard to find many who think as the GOP leadership reportedly does. Few believe in Jeb. Far more overtly denounce the idea of yet another Bush presidency, and with plenty of good historical reason. For instance, flashman2 declared on The Guardian thread attached to their Jeb Bush article: “Never happen. Trust me, no Bush will ever be elected again to anything after [Dubya]. The people who think it is a possibility also believe in the Tooth Fairy.” And yet the reports continue that the Tooth Fairy has a large following at the RNC.

Jeb isn’t the only Great White House Hope for the GOP insiders. Senator Jim “de mental” DeMint is touting Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, and one cannot completely believe the denials of Chris Christie despite his recent chumminess with Mitt Romney. There are other names being bandied about. All of this emphasizes how fragmented the Republican Party now is, and how the odds of the brokered convention lampooned by Don Ringe even out by the minute. Some even see this prospect as a good thing, a fix for what ails the GOP.

Considering that Obama now has his hands full working out a strategy to counter the very convenient increase in gasoline prices, immediately after he proposed reducing business tax rates in trade for closing loopholes, naturally, the GOP now has time to work out this party champion vacancy. The election remains Obama’s to lose for now. But based on his track record of caving in to Republican demands while kicking his own supporters to the curb for complaining about this frequent practice, this pretend political pundit continues to believe Obama’s going to give the GOP 98 percent of what they demand, which is more than enough for them to reclaim the White House. Those who can’t see that this is possible need to look up the meaning of the word hubris. Then you need to do what you can to help your incumbent wake up.

In the meantime, all you Michiganders who are getting fed up with the dictatorship of Rick Snyder need to take advantage of your open primary coming up. All you Badgers in Wisconsin need to be speeding up the process by which you locate a good candidate to replace Scott Walker. And so on across the land: if you do nothing, your incumbent has too good a chance of losing, for the GOP won’t give up trying to work out a way to make it happen. And they still have the ability to Diebold the vote count if it’s close.

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About pessimist

  • http://cinemasentries.com/ El Bicho

    I hadn’t realized brooklynbadboy had weighed in. Better alert Obama and his team. They might consider stepping down.

  • http://loftypremise.blogspot.com/ Tommy Mack

    The last thing that Bush or Christie wants to do is to run against Obama and lose. It is better to run against Obama’s Democratic successor. Besides, the out-of-power party needs to purge itself of its right wing bile and of its conservative posers. Come up with a plan for the country to succeed and 2016 voters will flock. Running against the incumbent is not smart. Let the dummies do it.

    Tommy

  • Igor

    #2-Tommy is right.

  • Igor

    Good article, Realist. Lays out the contenders pretty well. My overall take on the republicans is that all the candidates were so anxious to rush to the far right gunnel of Good Ship GOP that the big boat will capsize, dumping everyone in the cold water and then sitting there rather forlornly like the “Costa Concordia”.

  • Deano

    At the end of the day Obama is a fairly centrist “big-tent” style politician. As much as he may piss off the mmore ideological hard-left Dems for not implementing the radical change they demand, and for his compromising approach, at the end of the day, they don’t really have anywhere else to go. The majority will support him.

    So long at the GOP continues to pander to the far right nutbars of their party, and to marginalize the mainstream, the Republicans are going to lose. The basic insanity of the far right of the party just doesn’t appeal to moderate Republicans, many of whom don’t want to live in a Santorum-ruled theocracy. Obama, for all his faults, is a more palatable, less divisive and frankly more practical conservative choice.

    If Romney wins the nomination, my prediction is he will veer hard left, aiming for the mainstream political “big tent” and distancing himself from the hard right, otherwise he hasn’t a hope in the next election.

  • http://blogcritics.org/politics/article/why-obama-can-still-win-for/page-2/ Javonta Howard

    I think that Obama is the one for this country. This country needs Obama to break this cycle and move this country forward. Obama has been doing his best to keep this country going and back on track. The Democratic didn’t mess this country up the republicans did and it’s going to take the democratic eight years or so to get this country back on track. Obama has my vote
    Obama

  • Javonta Howard

    I wish that everyone one in this country will stop fighting against each other and start working together like president Obama says. Thats why we need Obama back in the chair so we can make all these good thing possible. I’m a high school student and I know all this. Normally you dont find much high school students talking like this, but I see something good in Obama feels as if i know him so lets vote Obama
    Obama 2012 got my vote