Prediction: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Preference: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Actress in a Leading Role: People all around have been saying it is finally time for Kate Winslet to receive her due as one of the best actresses of her generation and the Academy will no doubt agree. She is already at her sixth nomination with no wins yet at the age of 33 and the Academy will want to prevent her from becoming the biggest loser in Oscar history. Not even the fact that the SAG went to Meryl Streep for her work as the sternly unbending, authoritarian nun in Doubt will hinder her from winning this category (and in the SAG, Winslet was not competing against Streep for The Reader but for Revolutionary Road and she won Best Supporting Actress SAG for the former).
I do admire Winslet’s work in The Reader in not only playing a wide range of ages but keeping an enigmatic resilience to her very secretive character that evokes our sympathy despite her ultimately callous and even monstrous nature. But my personal choice would be for Melissa Leo in Frozen River. Just the fact that she would risk a close-up of her naturally aged, wrinkled face to make her desperate but unusually heroic mother role so raw and powerful alone shows that she has more daring than any other actress, including the other nominees this year. If there were a time when honoring a hard-working veteran is not just political but actually meritorious, this would be it because she is truly able to use her natural age to her artistic advantage. But we all know that politics often come on stronger than merit at the Oscars and the “long due” political favor is on Winslet’s side.
Prediction: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Preference: Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Well, we all know we would be fools to bet against Heath Ledger, right? So I am going to take a moment to respond to the slight backlash that I have been reading and state why I think the posthumous award will not just be out of a sentimental vote but a truly deserving one. It is easy to think of his performance as the Joker as one-note because the character is one pitched at feverish, mythical levels and, as the film’s director Christopher Nolan intended, seemingly without a past. But that would be ignoring the multitude of methods with which he wholly and distinctly created a singularly terrifying character. He spanned the gamut from enigmatic calculation and a slightly comical morbidity to acting so thoroughly like a caged, wounded animal in his telling of conflicting stories to almost draw on our sympathies until we realize that it is a more insidious strategy of deceptive intimidation. That he managed to find these various shades of subtlety within what is a larger-than-life creation is remarkable.
![The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [Theatrical Release]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51lR-IXa8wL._SL120_.jpg)
![Frost/Nixon [Theatrical Release]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41M9MZS0sgL._SL120_.jpg)
![The Reader [Theatrical Release]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41Nca8H1tNL._SL120_.jpg)
Article comments
1 - handyguy
Milk a conventional biopic?? Too lionizing of its subject? I think you saw a different movie than I. Harvey Milk's political machinations [not always pretty] and his questionable taste [in at least one case] in boyfriends provide a fair amount of the movie's plot.
Both Milk [Gus Van Sant] and Benjamin Button [David Fincher] are brilliantly and innovatively directed by two of the best filmmakers now working.
Slumdog is entertaining, and also extremely well directed, but it's a bit predictable and manipulative and superficial, eh? I agree it's likely to win, but then, so did Crash and A Beautiful Mind and other movies that were far from their years' best.
2 - Jordan Richardson
I didn't like Benjamin Button at all, but I'm pretty sure it'll scoop the top prize. The BAFTA's aren't all that good of an indication, as Atonement was the big winner there last year.
I do like Slumdog Millionaire quite a bit and prefer it to any of the nominees. Frost/Nixon would be my second choice.
Agree on Melissa Leo as Best Actress, she was incredible and that whole film was excellent. I would rather have seen Winslet get nominated for Revolutionary Road. Surprised at the Jolie nomination, really, and annoyed that Sally Hawkins wasn't nominated.
Also hoping for a Mickey Rourke Oscar win. Actually, I'm pretty much hoping for anyone but Brad Pitt. I have a sneaking suspicion that Pitt will win it, though.
ALL of the Best Supporting Actor nominees were great this year. No way Ledger doesn't win, though. Best Supporting Actresses were all also excellent, but I'd like to see Penelope Cruz pull this one off. It's a longshot, but I think she was superb.
Best animated flick is WALL-E even though Kung-Fu Panda was also excellent.
Best director should go to Danny Boyle, although I'd rather have seen nominations for Mike Leigh, Sam Mendes, Darren Aronofsky, Tomas Alfredson, Werner Herzog, and Woody Allen (I know, I know...I live in a dream world).
Best documentary (and one of the absolute BEST films of the year) is Herzog's Encounters at the End of the World. Best foreign language film will probably be Waltz with Bashir, although the best movie of 2008, Let the Right One In, should have been nominated. To me, that's the biggest oversight at this year's Oscars.
Adapted screenplay should go to Doubt, while original screenplay should go to Happy-Go-Lucky.
3 - John
I agree with you that "Let the Right One In" was one of the best films last year but unfortunately it was not the official submission from Sweden to the Best Foreign Language Film category (as per policy, there is only one allowed for submission and it was "Everlasting Moments," which did not end up getting nominated). I would have liked to see the movie at least get recognized for Best Adapted Screenplay (and it is better than any of the actual nominees in the category) but the Academy did not have enough reach for that.
4 - Jordan Richardson
Ah, I knew there had to be a reason. Thanks for clearing that up, John!