Prediction: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Preference: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor in a Leading Role: This category is honestly one of the hardest to predict in many a year. Richard Jenkins and Brad Pitt are likely the ones that can safely be crossed out (although I would like to see Richard Jenkins up here again in the near future) but a convincing argument can be made for each of the other three nominees, Frank Langella, Sean Pennm and Mickey Rourke. The Academy may choose Langella, as the older voters are often suckers for the older veteran character actor who gets the role of a lifetime (and he has more exposure and the advantage of a December release compared to Richard Jenkins). Or they might vote for Penn, who already has the SAG and whose winning may make a timely political statement. Or they might go for Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler, as his victory would make his great comeback story complete.
It is hard to call, but here is how I weigh the factors based on past Oscar history. The veteran factor may come strong but it ends up coming more in the supporting category and people may feel Langella’s leading exposure here will lead him to be up soon enough for a nomination in the near future.
Penn does have the SAG but he is a relatively recent Oscar winner and the SAG award was likely more of a make-up one for overlooking him for that Oscar-winning role in Mystic River (it went shockingly enough to Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean). I am also guessing the writer, Dustin Lance Black, winning for his original screenplay for Milk will likely make a stronger impression and political statement in the Academy’s eyes.
That leaves Mickey Rourke and I think the Academy will consider the fact that he may not be up here in the Oscar lineup again and this may be the only chance they can reward him. They may also want to hear his Golden Globe speech once again where he even earnestly thanked his dog. And you know what, I want to hear it, too, and see him up there for the role on which he poured out his heart and soul and the surprising subtlety with which he embraced his empathy with the character.
Article comments
1 - handyguy
Milk a conventional biopic?? Too lionizing of its subject? I think you saw a different movie than I. Harvey Milk's political machinations [not always pretty] and his questionable taste [in at least one case] in boyfriends provide a fair amount of the movie's plot.
Both Milk [Gus Van Sant] and Benjamin Button [David Fincher] are brilliantly and innovatively directed by two of the best filmmakers now working.
Slumdog is entertaining, and also extremely well directed, but it's a bit predictable and manipulative and superficial, eh? I agree it's likely to win, but then, so did Crash and A Beautiful Mind and other movies that were far from their years' best.
2 - Jordan Richardson
I didn't like Benjamin Button at all, but I'm pretty sure it'll scoop the top prize. The BAFTA's aren't all that good of an indication, as Atonement was the big winner there last year.
I do like Slumdog Millionaire quite a bit and prefer it to any of the nominees. Frost/Nixon would be my second choice.
Agree on Melissa Leo as Best Actress, she was incredible and that whole film was excellent. I would rather have seen Winslet get nominated for Revolutionary Road. Surprised at the Jolie nomination, really, and annoyed that Sally Hawkins wasn't nominated.
Also hoping for a Mickey Rourke Oscar win. Actually, I'm pretty much hoping for anyone but Brad Pitt. I have a sneaking suspicion that Pitt will win it, though.
ALL of the Best Supporting Actor nominees were great this year. No way Ledger doesn't win, though. Best Supporting Actresses were all also excellent, but I'd like to see Penelope Cruz pull this one off. It's a longshot, but I think she was superb.
Best animated flick is WALL-E even though Kung-Fu Panda was also excellent.
Best director should go to Danny Boyle, although I'd rather have seen nominations for Mike Leigh, Sam Mendes, Darren Aronofsky, Tomas Alfredson, Werner Herzog, and Woody Allen (I know, I know...I live in a dream world).
Best documentary (and one of the absolute BEST films of the year) is Herzog's Encounters at the End of the World. Best foreign language film will probably be Waltz with Bashir, although the best movie of 2008, Let the Right One In, should have been nominated. To me, that's the biggest oversight at this year's Oscars.
Adapted screenplay should go to Doubt, while original screenplay should go to Happy-Go-Lucky.
3 - John
I agree with you that "Let the Right One In" was one of the best films last year but unfortunately it was not the official submission from Sweden to the Best Foreign Language Film category (as per policy, there is only one allowed for submission and it was "Everlasting Moments," which did not end up getting nominated). I would have liked to see the movie at least get recognized for Best Adapted Screenplay (and it is better than any of the actual nominees in the category) but the Academy did not have enough reach for that.
4 - Jordan Richardson
Ah, I knew there had to be a reason. Thanks for clearing that up, John!