It is time to predict who will actually take home Oscar, and while the general nominations are relatively easy to call, the actual winners are often harder to predict. In a backwards way, I wish there was one year when my predicting many categories is really moot because that would mean I am not second-guessing political factors and other trends and the vote is based solely on artistic quality.
Of course, politics and artistic quality are not necessarily mutually exclusive but the former should be minimized as much as possible so that we can have some pleasant and truly deserving surprise wins. Anyway, enough of my rambling... here are my predictions for who will win the Oscars as well as my preferences for who should win.
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire, of course. It has the PGA and DGA on its side and, after the last few years’ Best Picture winners such as Million Dollar Baby, Crash, The Departed, and No Country for Old Men have been so downbeat, the Academy will feel that this is their opportunity to honor an uplifting film. The fact that it is set in India is also a gigantic boost, as the Oscars are really enthusiastic over the theme of globalization these days and this is the friendliest one they can pick.
In fact, it is the only particularly memorable movie in this category’s lineup, although it is getting ever clearer that the Academy tends to ignore films that really distend the realm of cinema. There are good movies here such as Milk, Frost/Nixon or The Reader but how many people will actually remember these movies after the next few years? And does The Curious Case of Benjamin Button really tell a story that exploits the possibilities of its wild premise beyond its slick technical and visual surface? Well, at least they will end up (hopefully) picking the one movie that stands out the most.
Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Preference: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: The Best Picture front runner will also carry the torch here for the director, Danny Boyle. He has been an ambitious director, immersing himself in almost any genre and most, including the DGA that has honored him, would agree that immersing himself so well in a foreign culture this time has allowed him to direct one of his best films yet. If there is a dark horse, I do not think it will be David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, as many people believe, but Gus Van Sant, as there might be votes of sympathy for him after not winning for Good Will Hunting and making a slew of films that are strictly personal and outside the mainstream (although, of course, the Academy would choose to pick him for a more commercial movie like Milk rather than a more unconventional, ambitious film like Paranoid Park). Ron Howard is already a past recent winner and Stephen Daldry should be happy just with his nomination here, although he may start to get restless after losing with all three nominations.
![The Curious Case of Benjamin Button [Theatrical Release]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51lR-IXa8wL._SL120_.jpg)
![Frost/Nixon [Theatrical Release]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41M9MZS0sgL._SL120_.jpg)
![The Reader [Theatrical Release]](http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41Nca8H1tNL._SL120_.jpg)
Article comments
1 - handyguy
Milk a conventional biopic?? Too lionizing of its subject? I think you saw a different movie than I. Harvey Milk's political machinations [not always pretty] and his questionable taste [in at least one case] in boyfriends provide a fair amount of the movie's plot.
Both Milk [Gus Van Sant] and Benjamin Button [David Fincher] are brilliantly and innovatively directed by two of the best filmmakers now working.
Slumdog is entertaining, and also extremely well directed, but it's a bit predictable and manipulative and superficial, eh? I agree it's likely to win, but then, so did Crash and A Beautiful Mind and other movies that were far from their years' best.
2 - Jordan Richardson
I didn't like Benjamin Button at all, but I'm pretty sure it'll scoop the top prize. The BAFTA's aren't all that good of an indication, as Atonement was the big winner there last year.
I do like Slumdog Millionaire quite a bit and prefer it to any of the nominees. Frost/Nixon would be my second choice.
Agree on Melissa Leo as Best Actress, she was incredible and that whole film was excellent. I would rather have seen Winslet get nominated for Revolutionary Road. Surprised at the Jolie nomination, really, and annoyed that Sally Hawkins wasn't nominated.
Also hoping for a Mickey Rourke Oscar win. Actually, I'm pretty much hoping for anyone but Brad Pitt. I have a sneaking suspicion that Pitt will win it, though.
ALL of the Best Supporting Actor nominees were great this year. No way Ledger doesn't win, though. Best Supporting Actresses were all also excellent, but I'd like to see Penelope Cruz pull this one off. It's a longshot, but I think she was superb.
Best animated flick is WALL-E even though Kung-Fu Panda was also excellent.
Best director should go to Danny Boyle, although I'd rather have seen nominations for Mike Leigh, Sam Mendes, Darren Aronofsky, Tomas Alfredson, Werner Herzog, and Woody Allen (I know, I know...I live in a dream world).
Best documentary (and one of the absolute BEST films of the year) is Herzog's Encounters at the End of the World. Best foreign language film will probably be Waltz with Bashir, although the best movie of 2008, Let the Right One In, should have been nominated. To me, that's the biggest oversight at this year's Oscars.
Adapted screenplay should go to Doubt, while original screenplay should go to Happy-Go-Lucky.
3 - John
I agree with you that "Let the Right One In" was one of the best films last year but unfortunately it was not the official submission from Sweden to the Best Foreign Language Film category (as per policy, there is only one allowed for submission and it was "Everlasting Moments," which did not end up getting nominated). I would have liked to see the movie at least get recognized for Best Adapted Screenplay (and it is better than any of the actual nominees in the category) but the Academy did not have enough reach for that.
4 - Jordan Richardson
Ah, I knew there had to be a reason. Thanks for clearing that up, John!