With a "tip 'o the envelope" to Bill Murray (in the salad days of SNL), here are MY Oscar Picks...
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Chris Cooper; Ed Harris; Paul Newman; John C. Reilly; Christopher Walken.
The key word here is "supporting" so, like, who cares? Using my "Random Winner Generator" program, my pick is... Christopher Walken.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kathy Bates; Julianne Moore; Queen Latifah; Meryl Streep; Catherine Zeta-Jones.
Again, it's supporting. And they're chicks. So, no random generator this time. Instead, I'll use a highly scientific method to pick the winner: If I clear my mind, and think of all five nominees, who do I picture buck naked first? And the winner is... Julianne Moore.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody ("The Pianist"): while first-time nominees sometimes pull off an upset (remember Bette Midler in "The Rose"?), Brody has a few things working against him that Midler didn't. First, the albatross of "Annie McGuire", the heavy-handed and oh-so disappointing Mary Tyler Moore TV series, on which Brody co-starred. It was thankfully cancelled after just six episodes in 1988, but Academy members have long memories. Plus, in a recent interview, Brody said he'd much rather be making music. That techno-rap stuff that members just don't understand. Yo, maybe next time, Adrien!
Nicolas Cage ("Adaptation"): Cage plays twin brothers who are both screenwriters. Cage sure loves those duel roles. I think I saw the 'action-adventure' version of this one a few years ago, back when it was called "Face-Off." Historically, Hollywood loves movies set in and about Tinsel Town. Remember "The Player" and "LA Confidential"? The more self-referential and less understood by anybody outside Hollywood the better. I think I smell Oscar!
Michael Caine ("The Quiet American"): Frankly, I'm surprised Caine had the guts to even show his face in Hollywood, much less appear in every third movie released, after making that early-80s turkey "Jaws IV". Or maybe it was "Jaws V". You know, the one with the really angry shark in it. Whichever one of the two that was.
Daniel Day-Lewis ("Gangs of New York"): You might remember this actor as the 1989 Oscar Winner for "My Left Foot", in which he portrayed a severely physically handicapped man. That'll hurt him this year. Sorry, Daniel, but if 'ya ain't playing crippled 'ya ain't gonna win again.



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Article comments
1 - AntFreeze
One out of five is pretty lame. Although I certainly can't fault your methodology. Closing your eyes and choosing the first one you see naked is truly inspired.
2 - shaft
Asshole!I knew Nicole would win. And duh...Nicolas Cage? He is soo ten years ago!
3 - Peter Petrisko
AntFreeze,
You're looking at it all wrong. It's not so much that I got only one out of five RIGHT, but that I correctly predicted, what, something like 16 nominees who would lose.
I'll try to do better next year. My plan is to DOUBLE the number of correct guesses in 2004.
Until then, I'll save you an aisle seat!
Pete
4 - Eric Olsen
Great answer, rock on Pete