Oscar Preview and Predictions
If you are tired of headlines like "Rock the House," referring to how Oscars host Chris Rock will shake up the stodgy and stiff Academy Awards, hang in there because it is almost over. On Sunday night the 77th annual awards will be announced in a 16-hour televised broadcast, or at least it will feel that way. Despite the buzz surrounding Rock as the host, the awards show may suffer from fairly low ratings. There is less interest and suspense as to who wins among the general public with not one of the major nominated films crossing the $100 million mark, which has not happened in 15 years. The most-watched moments of the night will be the red-carpet arrivals and Rock's intro monologue.
The "death applause meter" will be interesting to gage with Marlon Brando, Christopher Reeve and Ronald Reagan battling it out during the dead stars montage tribute. In death as in life, Rodney Dangerfield will probably still get no respect.
Oscar Predictions
Will Win (X)
Should Win (Y)
Best Picture
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby (X, Y)
Ray
Sideways
Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Aviator) (X)
Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) (Y)
Taylor Hackford (Ray)
Alexander Payne (Sideways)
Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)
Best Actor
Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda) (Y)
Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)
Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)
Jamie Foxx (Ray) (X)
Best Actress
Annette Bening (Being Julia)
Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)
Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)
Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby) (X, Y)
Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Alda (The Aviator)
Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)
Jamie Foxx (Collateral) (Y)
Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby) (X)
Clive Owen (Closer)
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (The Aviator) (X)
Laura Linney (Kinsey)
Virginia Madsen (Sideways)
Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)
Natalie Portman (Closer) (Y)
With the predictions, I am going against the grain hoping that Jamie Foxx wins for “Collateral” instead of “Ray.” Why? While certainly Oscar level, the “Ray” persona is somewhat of a caricature. That becomes very clear once Foxx takes off those sunglasses. While the unique and deeply layered character he creates in “Collateral,” who appears in almost every frame of the film, is a breakthrough for him. But given the Ray-mania in the country (the Grammys, Billboard charts), Foxx will win Best Actor. Morgan Freeman deserves to win Best Supporting Actor if Foxx does not. It is tempting to predict Virginia Madsen and will not be a surprise if she wins for Best Supporting Actress, but the Academy will likely reward Cate Blanchett for her impression of Katharine Hepburn, herself a four-time Oscar winner. If Natalie Portman should win for “Closer,” she might wear something hot to accept the award. Clint Eastwood, Hilary Swank and “Million Dollar Baby” deserve to prevail over “The Aviator” and Martin Scorsese, but this is likely his year to take home his unbelievably first Best Director statue.
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