Predicted: Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire.
Actual: Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road.
Somehow I feel I should have seen this coming. The supporting categories tend to throw in their curveball by choosing a small, scene-stealing performance and there was no one who fit the bill more than Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. Well, they had to give that movie at least one acting nomination, right? Anyway, it is nice to see Robert Downey, Jr. back and see Josh Brolin finally get his due. Philip Seymour Hoffman is becoming a regular at the Oscars but, of course, this category is the late, great Heath Ledger’s to lose.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted: Amy Adams, Doubt; Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler; Kate Winslet, The Reader.
Actual: Amy Adams, Doubt; Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler.
It looks like Kate Winslet’s appropriate vacating left it open for Taraji P. Henson to sneak in for her surrogate motherly role in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. It also might leave Penelope Cruz as the front-runner, although I really would like to see the attention shift to some of the other performers who play greater emotional notes. As expected, there are two nominations from Doubt for two performances from Amy Adams and Viola Davis that could not be more different. Marisa Tomei’s role was also crucial to the power and meaning of The Wrestler so it is nice to see the Academy saw that.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted: Dustin Lance Black, Milk; Woody Allen, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Tom McCarthy, The Visitor; Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon, WALL-E; Robert D. Siegel, The Wrestler.
Actual: Courtney Hunt, Frozen River; Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky; Martin McDonagh, In Bruges; Dustin Lance Black, Milk; Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon, WALL-E.
This is the category that was most wide open and I did not do so well. I am a little bummed that the strength of Mickey Rourke’s or Richard Jenkins’ performances has strayed the attention away from how great the screenplays for The Wrestler and The Visitor were to respectively give them such memorable roles. But at least the Academy chose to nominate far worthier nominees than Woody Allen such as first-time writers, Courtney Hunt for Frozen River and Martin McDonagh for In Bruges. Of course, WALL-E had to get a nomination here and a screenplay honor almost always goes hand in hand with the Best Picture nod for Milk.
Article comments
1 - El Bicho
Good, thorough write-up.
I don't see why Slumdog is a likely front runner. It was made outside of Hollywood. If you take into consideration the voting body and some of the aspects you mention, The Reader has much more going for it, and I would put CCoBB ahead as well. The Oscars are not much different from high school and the voters are going to pick friends over strangers. Milk was good but certainly not Top Five of the year.
"at least the Academy did not make the same silly mistake that the Golden Globes and SAG did."
The organizations do not decide what category an actor gets nominated in. That's determined by the producers who submit them.
"I wonder if she will make a reference to that in her speech if she wins."
Considering Gervais already did this at the Golden Globes, I doubt it.
"this category would have been even stronger with the inclusion of Waltz with Bashir"
It's not that it sufficed, but then it couldn't have competed in the Best Foreign Language category. It's a silly rule, but it is what it is.
I would be curious about why the Song was limited to three. People would tune in for Miley and Bruce.
2 - El Bicho
According to AP, "An academy spokeswoman says songs need to earn a score of at least 8 and a-quarter out of ten to be nominated and the songs by Cyrus and Springsteen scored less than that."
Ouch.
3 - Robert M. Barga
your entire post is simply a fanboy of dark night
it was a good movie, and Heath was a good actor. The only thing it was worthy of is best supporting actor (heath) but he is dead, so he doesn't really deserve it
4 - John
Hmm, I would be careful with the wording of "but he is dead, so he doesn't really deserve it." Could be open to misconstruing.
5 - El Bicho
"he is dead, so he doesn't really deserve it"
All else can you take it other than uninformed? Did Peter Finch not deserve his Oscar? Should they disqualify The Reader sine two of the producers have died? How exactly does someone 'deserve' an Oscar?