Each year the Academy gathers and votes on the best films of the year. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, and sometimes the best films aren't even nominated!
Of course, awards in general are mere marketing tools. Yes, the nominated films are all worthy of being there (more or less), but whether or not they can be considered the best is purely subjective. By extension, anyone else's choices are also subjective, but it is fun to make guesses, right? Anyway, as a lover of movies I would be remiss if I did not toss my hat in the ring.
Read on to discover who I think will win, who I'd like to see win, and one choice for the ever-present "overlooked" category. The categories are in the same order as on the Oscar page, where all of the nominees are listed, but I've left off the few in which I haven't seen any of the nominated films.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role:
- Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Samuel L. Jackson in Black Snake Moan.
- Notes: There is not a single person who has given a performance better than Daniel Day-Lewis. He is simply captivating as the turn of the century oil man. Now, even without winning, Jackson needs to be recognized for his raw, emotional performance as a man looking for redemption.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role:
- Will Win: Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Ben Foster in 3:10 to Yuma.
- Notes: Bardem deserves it, hands down. He gave us one of the best villains ever created. Foster does deserve notice, not just for his scene-stealing performance in Yuma, but for his creepy presence in the mediocre 30 Days of Night. This is a guy who has great things ahead of him.
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role:
- Will Win: Julie Christie in Away from Her (Lionsgate)
- Who I'd Like: Ellen Page in Juno (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production)
- Overlooked: Christina Ricci in Black Snake Moan.
- Notes: Ricci gave a soul-baring (and physically baring) performance that left her open and raw to the world. Very good work that should be recognized. However, I am very much rooting for Ellen Page to pull the upset. As for the winner, it could be someone I haven't mentioned, it is a very open field.
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role:
- Will Win: Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There (The Weinstein Company)
- Who I'd Like: Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone (Miramax)
- Overlooked: Imelda Staunton in Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix.
- Notes: Generally, franchises get the shaft for acting awards, but in this case they should have made an exception. Staunton's performance was deliciously evil; I really hated her character, very effective. There are some rumblings for Ruby Dee, but I think the winner will be one of the two I have named above.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year:
- Will Win: Ratatouille (Walt Disney): Brad Bird
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Paprika.
- Notes: Without a doubt, the Brad Bird feature will take the top prize. Paprika is an excellent anime film from Satoshi Kon, definitely worth spending some time with. Beowulf could also be added to the overlooked.
Achievement in Art Direction:
- Will Win: There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
- Who I'd Like: Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount): Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
- Overlooked: Across the Universe.
- Notes: I am not sure why I picked Blood here, but my gut tells me it will take it home, although my heart is with the fantastic Sweeney. As for Universe? There is a lot of good work in there that deserves to be recognized.
Achievement in Cinematography:
- Will Win: There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Robert Elswit
- Who I'd Like: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Roger Deakins
- Overlooked: American Gangster: Harris Savides
- Notes: I was a little lukewarm to Gangster, but it was beautifully shot. While it was overlooked, it would not have stood a chance against the ones that were nominated. I would be happy with either of the two above. I think Deakins may be hurt by dual nominations (he is also nominated for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford).
Achievement in Costume Design:
- Will Win: Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: 300: Michael Wilkinson
- Notes: This is easily Sweeney's best shot at becoming an Oscar winner here, and I believe it will come out on top.
Achievement in Directing:
- Will Win: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
- Who I'd Like: See above, although Paul Thomas Anderson would be a very close second.
- Overlooked: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Tim Burton
- Notes: My favorite film of the year's director was sorely overlooked. His work on the big screen musical was fabulous. Still, the Coens did spectacular work, as did Anderson.
Best Documentary Feature:
- Will Win: No End in Sight (Magnolia Pictures) A Representational Pictures Production: Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
- Who I'd Like: Taxi to the Dark Side (THINKFilm) An X-Ray Production: Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
- Overlooked: King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters.
- Notes: The only nominee I've seen is Sicko, and I do not think it will win. Yes, that makes my choice a guess. As for Kong, with all of the great word on it, I am very surprised it was not nominated.
Achievement in Film Editing:
- Will Win: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
- Who I'd Like: The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal): Christopher Rouse
- Notes: That's right, no overlooked choice here. This will be No Country's night, but I would prefer the frenetic work of Bourne film.
Achievement in Makeup:
- Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Walt Disney): Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: 300.
- Notes: Pirates had some very nice makeup work and deserves to take home the top prize. 300 had nice work as well. I am sad that this action-fest was so ignored.
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original score)
- Will Win: Atonement (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
- Who I'd Like: Ratatouille (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
- Overlooked: There Will Be Blood. Jonny Greenwood
- Notes: The best score of the year was overlooked. This is a cruel miscarriage of justice. As for Atonement, I liked parts of the score and feel that it has the best chance of winning, although Giuacchino's work is most deserving of the nominees.
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original song):
- Will Win: "Falling Slowly" from "Once" (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Notes: I did not discover Once until DVD, and it is a beautiful film with fantastic music. I think it has a chance with Enchanted's three entries splitting their vote and costing them a win. Although, those songs were fun, too, and I would not be disappointed if one of them pulled out a win.
Best Motion Picture of the Year:
- Will Win: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) A Scott Rudin/Mike Zoss Production: Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street.
- Notes: Sweeney was my favorite film of the year, so I have to believe it was overlooked. That said, I have no problem with No Country, it was my number two and very well deserving of all the acclaim its gotten. Still, I would not count out There Will Be Blood or the dark horse, Juno, with a possible upset.
Achievement in Sound Editing:
- Will Win: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay
- Who I'd Like: There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Christopher Scarabosio and Matthew Wood
- Who I'd Like: Transformers (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
- Overlooked: The Mist.
- Notes: I know, I chose two I'd like to win plus an overlooked film, and I do like my pick to win. These films did great work with sound, this has been a good year for this category.
Achievement in Sound Mixing:
- Will Win: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
- Who I'd Like: Transformers (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
- Notes: The sounds in No Country were fantastic, the lack of score with the sounds of footsteps, and that silenced gun, what can I say but wow! Still, the work in Transformers cannot be denied, regardless of what you think of the movie. The crunching destruction, the sound of the transformations, excellent work.
Achievement in Visual Effects:
- Will Win: Transformers (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: 300.
- Notes: While the third Pirates film looked great, what was achieved with the alien robots cannot be denied, you will believe that your car can turn into a big battling 'bot. 300 has made what may be the best use of the digital back lot yet, the whole movie was a special effect.
Adapted Screenplay:
- Will Win: No Country for Old Men (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Zodiac, James Vanderbilt
- Notes: The Coens wrote an excellent adaptation that deserves to win. However, the Zodiac script should have been included, it is epic in scope yet personal in nature. This is a film that was overlooked in many areas.
Original Screenplay:
- Will Win: Juno (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production), Written by Diablo Cody
- Who I'd Like: See above.
- Overlooked: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Written by John Logan
- Notes: Yes, Sweeney was definitely overlooked, but the winner is and should be Diablo Cody. That screenplay really touched on something that rings true. Yes, the dialogue does not sound exactly real, but it feels very real.
That about wraps it up. Be sure to tune on Sunday, February 24 to see how poor my picks were!
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Article comments
1 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
Great Predicitions...
Here is where I am out of my territory but I would have to agree with you that Paprika was a far better film than Ratatouille.
The major difference is that Satoshi Kon's masterpiece is a film for adults & showcases some of the best artwork,storyline & music I have ever witnessed in Anime since Ghost in the Shell & Akira. IMHO,I believe this movie surpasses those two pioneering titles.
The big problem in this country is that animation is still considered for children & movies like Ratatouille do not showcase the imagination or cover the social & mental ground that anime does. For animation, these movies can make you forget that you're watching animation & I feel that they could hold up against the best live-action movies we have to offer.
Don't get me wrong, I love alot of these Pixar films just like the next person but I do feel they have lost their innovation over time & they are constantly immature. I would love to see Pixar release an adult title that would rival the work by Katsuhiro Otomo(Akira,Steamboy) or Satoshi Kon...
2 - Chris Beaumont
Thanks, Brian. DOn't get me wrong, I did not mean to imply that Paprika was better than Ratatouille. I feel the Pixar film was by far the best animated feature of the year. Period, end of story. It even made my top ten. It is beeautifully animated, wonderfully told, it was just a wonderful movie.
I do agree with the much in need of update attitudes in AMerica regarding animation, at least in the mainstream. It does help that Persepolis was nominated, it was a mature, adult animated feature.
3 - Jordan Richardson
I thought Paprika was a 2006 film.
4 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
Sorry if I misread, I tend to do that when someone else mentions a film(or cd) I love...
I agree that it helps that Persepolis was nominated though,imo, the movie looks pretty weak in the animation department & doesn't even compare to Paprika. I guess,maybe, they are focusing on the storyline which,hopefully, will open some doors for other films.
5 - Chris Beaumont
No problem, Brian! Persepolis is a good, personal film. The animation is simplistic in nature but has a very distinctive feel and is well worthy of its nomination. It very easily cold have been a live action, but it's simplicity and primarily black and white look give it a uniqueness that is refreshing without being overbearing.
Jordan,
It was a 2006 film, but it was not released theatrically in the US until 2007, making it an eligible film. 2006 it would have been eligible in the Best Foreign Language, but not for Best Animated, since it hadn't had a US release yet, now that it has, it is. I hope that made sense.... An example of a film nominated for awards in consecutive ceremonies is City of God, one year as Best Foreign and the next it was up for Best Director.
6 - Jordan Richardson
Ah, that's right. Thanks for clearing that up, Chris.
Nice article, btw.
7 - El Bicho
How could Sweeney Todd be up for original screenplay? Even Borat, which was all original material, was nominated for adapted because it was based on the TV show.
You are right that films need to be shown in their home countries first but City of God was not nominated in consecutive years. It wasn't nominated for Best Foreign Film and if it had been, it would not have been ineligible the following year.
Rule 14 from the Academy website: Films nominated for the Best Foreign Language Film Award shall not be eligible for Academy Award consideration in any category in any subsequent awards year.
I hope you are right about Sound Mixing because Kevin O'Connell from Transformers is 0-20 at the Oscars. Susan Lucci thinks that's a bad losing streak.
8 - Chris Beaumont
It wasn't? Man what am I thinking of then... exposing my ignorance once again....
As for Sweeney, well that was just a flat out screw up, I know it's not an original.. busted.
9 - Dusty Somers
Greenwood's score for There Will Be Blood wasn't eligible for Original Score, since much of the music had been composed for other works originally.
It's a shame that The Diving Bell and The Butterfly wasn't nominated for Best Picture - it's definitely the best film of the year. Hopefully it will at least pull out a win in the cinematography category, but it's extremely doubtful that it will win in the directing or adapted screenplay.
10 - Chris Beaumont
Was not aware of Greenwood's ineligibility. Do you know where the material appeared originally?
11 - Brian aka Guppusmaximus
but it's simplicity and primarily black and white look give it a uniqueness that is refreshing without being overbearing.
I guess... To me,that kind of animation seems to be a cop out of sorts. I think it would down-play the importance of such a message but that's my opinion.
Honestly, the animation isn't really that unique or refreshing,no offense. It kinda reminds me of Madeline but I'm trying not to be rude. It doesn't seem like the french have progressed in this area which is rather odd considering that they are supposed to be the ultimate destination for art. Though, I don't think Madeline was made in France.
I guess, I just feel that Paprika was absolutely brilliant & it didn't have to touch upon actual human tragedy to stand out...
12 - Brandon Valentine
Ditto Dusty on Diving Bell. It deserves a "Best Picture" nom. Let's hope it brings home the bacon for cinematography.
Good article Chris.
13 - zingzing
guppy... french animation is the shit. have you never heard of sylvain chomet? and persepolis is amazing. the animation is very fluid and life-like in its simplicity.
japanese animation is certainly good, although a bit flashy. miyazaki is a true master, as is his partner at studio ghibli... but there hasn't been much coming out of japan lately that has really impressed me.
14 - Jordan Richardson
Chomet's good, but he's not really done many films. Les Triplettes de Belleville was good and his short The Old Lady and the Pigeons was entertaining, but I'd like to see more from him before I'd personally cite him. He has a new film coming in 2009, but there aren't many details about it.
Other than Chomet, there's Michel Ocelot (who has had stuff released through Ghibli) and obviously Vincent Paronnaud, who did Persepolis. Rene Laloux MAY be someone I'd consider, but I don't know that French animation really stands out apart from them in my mind. Do you have any other recommendations, zingzing?
As for Japanese animation, there's a long list of stuff that's impressed me:
Satoshi Kon, obviously. His films are anything but flashy and his stories are immense.
Osamu Dezaki is remarkably talented, too, although I'm embarrassingly ignorant of most of his work. His 2007 film Clannad was quite nicely done.
Shigeyuki Hayashi (Rintaro) is obviously a great one. 2001's Metropolis is an awesome film.
Yoshiaki Kawajiri is another good one.
You already mentioned Miyazaki and Isao Takahata, who are truly great.
There's also Katsuhiro Otomo, Shinji Aramaki, Shinichirō Watanabe, and Mamoru Oshii. Personally, I find anime to be one of the more compelling and adventurous art forms in the world right now. Nobody is taking the strides the Japanese are taking with animation, but there is some good stuff out there to check out.
15 - bliffle
Oscar for Best Suit Tailor goes to George Clooneys costumer in "Michael Clayton". Perfect.
16 - Chris Beaumont
Two awards in and I'm 1 for 2.
17 - Chris Beaumont
The Golden Compass, best visual effects? Really? ....