I’m a registered Democrat. I voted for John Kerry. Watching So Goes the Nation, a documentary dissecting the 2004 presidential election in Ohio (for me or any other Kerry supporter) is almost as painful as reliving 9/11 on film. Sure it’s a big leap — the biggest terrorist attack in our nation’s history versus a close presidential contest — but had Kerry won the contentious and polarizing election, Bush supporters would feel the same way.
The 2004 presidential election was just that big. From the Democratic convention until Election Day, the momentousness of the event hung heavily in the air. Whatever happened, it meant something - something big.
Going into the election, Kerry was ahead in the polls and Bush’s people were nervous. After watching So Goes the Nation, you get the sense that it wasn’t close at all. In fact, you begin to wonder how Kerry turned out to be as successful as he was.
For anyone following the election that year, it was clear Ohio was going to be the big battleground state. I imagine that’s why there was a documentary crew there. So Goes the Nation, even with the Wednesday morning quarterbacking from former Bill Clinton adviser Paul Begala, manages to tell the definitive story of the 2004 presidential election.
Begala’s contributions are still significant, but not nearly as significant as stories from passionate individuals, both Republican and Democrat. By focusing on these people, the lawyer from Connecticut who sees parallels between 2004 and 1968 or the volunteer canvasser who trusts Bush on security, So Goes the Nation tunes into the emotional side of politics.
The volunteer for the Bush camp, a woman from West Virginia, knows Ohio is the key to victory. She’s my favorite interviewee. Unlike the Kerry people, so motivated by all the wrong things, she is smart and motivated for the right reasons. She’s not afraid to admit it was a good thing for Bush that Osama Bin Laden released a tape three days before the election. She understands the process and makes the Kerry folks look even weaker.







Article comments
1 - DIGGINGDEEPER
Released Jan. 27, 2007, in an online article with datasets:
OHIO 2004: 6.15% Kerry-Bush vote-switch found in probability study
Defining the vote outcome probabilities of wrong-precinct voting has revealed, in a sample of 166,953 votes (1 of every 34 Ohio votes), the Kerry-Bush margin changes 6.15% when the population is sorted by probable outcomes of wrong-precinct voting.
The Kerry to Bush 6.15% vote-switch differential is seen when the large sample is sorted by probability a Kerry wrong-precinct vote counts for Bush. When the same large voter sample is sorted by the probability Kerry votes count for third-party candidates, Kerry votes are instead equal in both subsets.
Read the revised article with graphs of new findings:
The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis
How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes PowerPoint