At this point in the Oscar race, post-nomination announcement and post-guild awards, the dust starts to settle. We've heard from the critics groups and seen live shows like the Broadcast Film Critics Association's Critics Choice Awards. Now, it starts to get boring.
Boring isn't something most of the people concerned with Oscar are used to. Oscar-watching is a passionate pastime for many movie fans, especially with the rise of blogs like AwardsDaily and InContention, as well as the mainstream press response like Variety's Awards Central and the New York Times's Carpetbagger blog. Since as early as last March, we've been wondering who will win, making wild predictions that looked silly in December. And all that anticipation makes the next month hard for any seasoned Oscar-watcher. Nothing much happens until the show.
News this week of a nominated original song's (“Falling Slowly” from Once) questionable eligibility spread like wildfire across the many Oscar-centric blogs and websites. It was a minor kerfuffle, most likely started by fellow original song nominee Alan Menken (Enchanted), who hasn't won an Oscar since 1995. (Just kidding. I love you, Mr. Menken.) Yet, it was hot news in the cold, dead month between the nominations and the awards.
The tougher part will be awards night, when it looks like everything from the critics awards to the guilds have lined up behind unstoppable frontrunners. Not since 2002, when The Pianist unexpectedly took Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor, and Best Director, has there really been a surprise contender who swooped in for a win at the last minute. Everyone kind of expected Crash to win Best Picture over Brokeback Mountain, just like everyone kind of suspected Alan Arkin would snag an Oscar last year for Little Miss Sunshine over frontrunner Eddie Murphy.
This year No Country for Old Men looks unbeatable in the Best Picture race, as do its directors, Ethan and Joel Coen, in the Best Director race. Daniel Day-Lewis is rolling to a Best Actor trophy for There Will Be Blood and legend Julie Christie (Away From Her) hasn't hit any roadblock on her way to an inevitable Best Actress trophy. Javier Bardem is locked in for Best Supporting actor, and though any of the five nominees could win Best Supporting Actress, only a win for Atonement star Saoirse Ronan would have me falling out of my chair in complete shock.
Same as last year. Same as the year before. Expect the expected.
Article comments
1 - David Begdorf
Nice article. I have another Oscar suggestion: Give Daniel Day Lewis Best Actor and Supporting!
It might lead to him anouncing his bid for president... for evidence look here.
2 - William Perice
The oscars are over rated and the system is corrupt in my opinion. Someone gets paid to get their place and on and on it goes.