OPV: 62%. This is the most predictive category there is. Regardless, Jamie’s all but got this one in the bag. But watch it be Javier and not Giamatti that’s his biggest competition.
Picture – Musical or Comedy
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Incredibles
The Phantom of the Opera
Ray
Sideways
Will Win: Sideways
Should Win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Believe it or not, Phantom actually has a pretty good chance here. Back in ’96, they gave this prize to Evita over Fargo. Nothing against Evita, but which of those films isn't on the IMDB Top 250? They really, really like musicals. But even that, I don’t think, will save Phantom. And though the HFP have no prejudice against animation (see Toy Story 2’s win in ’99), just being animated won’t cut it this year, even with a PGA nom. And Sunshine’s 2 cc awards pale in comparison to Sideways' 10, plus a PGA nom and a BFCA win. This is the second closest thing to a lock this year.
I actually like Sunshine better. It’s just a more brilliant concept, beautifully executed. Sideways is beautifully executed as well, but Sunshine has more to offer. It has the complexity of human relationships of Sideways, but also mind-bending sci-fi that feeds concepts about those relationships and just gives me more to chew on emotionally and intellectually. At the end of the day, it’s just more entertaining.
OPV: 21%. It doesn’t do much for you to win this award. But this year, I don’t think that will matter. And again, Sideways is just one shade shy of all out drama.
Picture – Drama
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
Hotel Rwanda
Kinsey
Million Dollar Baby
Will Win: The Aviator
Should Win: Before Sunset
A nice little reversal is going to happen here. Marty won’t win for director, but his film will win for Best Picture. Watch that get flipped at Oscar time, when he wins Best Director but sees his film lose to Sideways. But for now, you’re looking at Aviator’s two cc wins (most of those went to Sideways) and a PGA nom. Million’s got three, but at this level, who’s counting? Finding has one plus the PGA so consider these the top three. But the plethora of noms and HFP’s penchant for the traditional, epic-style Academy flick in this category (hence its predictive power) will give Aviator the edge.
Six films they nominate here. Eleven if you include the comedy/musical category. And they still can’t hit on my favorite film of last year. Yes, I know, I’m whining. But how hard is that? It’s got great performances and wonderful dialogue. Do you really need more than that? Lost in Translation, which won comedy/musical last year, had that. Okay, it also had Bill Murray, but still. If I had to pick from the films listed here…like, if my life depended on it…I’d probably pick Kinsey, which almost made my top ten this year. Million Dollar Baby was really good, too.
Article comments
1 - Eric Olsen
excellent work Dave, I now feel prepped - thanks!
2 - NancyGail
They don't always win Oscars from the Globes. And this is unique not only because it's live and unscripted, but television is nominated, too. Care to share your picks?
3 - Bill
Congrats on predicting Emmy Rossum to win a GG. It will be an upset. Beauty over royalty (Bening) and versatility (Winslet). But, how exciting if Emmy wins on Sunday (16th).
If she does win, I'm betting that The Academy will give Emmy that coveted 5th Best Actress nomination. The Academy likes to recognize fresh new talent (e.g. last year's Keisha Castle-Hughes).
4 - Frank
I don't know if anyone noticed this during the telecast of the Golden Globes, but when Meryl Streep was hilariously pretending to be upset with Natalie Portman for beating her out, the camera zoomed in on Emmy Rossum! It reminded me of that parody of some years ago: "They all look alike."