Of all these scores, I have the fondest memories (and by that I mean any) of Sideways. A nice, jazzy score. I kind of remember Eastwood’s, too, but honestly, I felt it was a little intrusive at times. (Ironic, given that most of the time it’s quiet as a church in that film).
OPV: Again, for reasons too boring to explain, near uncalculable.
Screenplay
The Aviator – John Logan
Closer – Patrick Marber
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Charlie Kaufman
Finding Neverland – David Magee
Sideways – Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
Will Win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Should Win: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The neat thing about Screenplay when it comes to the Golden Globes is that they don’t distinguish between adaptation and original work, so you see a competition that won’t happen at the Oscars. However, that competition did happen in critic’s circles for the past two months and Sideways was the more common victor. (Incidentally, virtually no other screenplay appears in those categories.) Payne and Taylor took home this award (in a bit of an upset over Kaufman’s Adaptation) in 2002. Kaufman’s on his third nom now without an award. I think they’ll give it to him this time.
And they should. This is an incredible screenplay. Arguably his best. And this is the guy who wrote Being John Malkovich, Adaptation, and Confessions of a Dangerous Mind.
OPV: 60%. You basically triple your chances of winning an Oscar by winning this globe. Keep in mind, though, that there are two screenwriting awards to choose from at that level. That kind of ups the odds. (If you’re curious, of the 60% of Globe winners in this category who go on to win a screenwriting Oscar, 60% are adapted and the other 40% are original.)
Director
Clint Eastwood – Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster – Finding Neverland
Mike Nichols – Closer
Alexander Payne – Sideways
Martin Scorcese – The Aviator
Will Win: Alexander Payne
Should Win: Alexander Payne
Okay. The smart money here is on Marty. Goldderby.com has him at 4/5 odds. Six of the critic’s circle awards named him best director, including the BFCA. However, he got the globe two years ago when he was favored to win, in part, cos he was “due”. Well, he’s not “due” anymore (at least in the eyes of the Hollywood Foreign Press; the Academy is another story we’ll get to in another preview). And they rarely give out more than one award to a director, at least among this bunch. Speaking of which, Clint’s already got two (including an improbable one for Bird) and two honorary awards, so he’s done. Thank you. Next.
Article comments
1 - Eric Olsen
excellent work Dave, I now feel prepped - thanks!
2 - NancyGail
They don't always win Oscars from the Globes. And this is unique not only because it's live and unscripted, but television is nominated, too. Care to share your picks?
3 - Bill
Congrats on predicting Emmy Rossum to win a GG. It will be an upset. Beauty over royalty (Bening) and versatility (Winslet). But, how exciting if Emmy wins on Sunday (16th).
If she does win, I'm betting that The Academy will give Emmy that coveted 5th Best Actress nomination. The Academy likes to recognize fresh new talent (e.g. last year's Keisha Castle-Hughes).
4 - Frank
I don't know if anyone noticed this during the telecast of the Golden Globes, but when Meryl Streep was hilariously pretending to be upset with Natalie Portman for beating her out, the camera zoomed in on Emmy Rossum! It reminded me of that parody of some years ago: "They all look alike."