OPV: Too difficult to calculate. I’d tell you why, but it’d bore the crap out of you. Trust me.
Original Song
“Accidentally in Love” from Shrek 2 – Counting Crows
“Believe” from Polar Express – Josh Groban
“Learn to Be Lonely” from Phantom of the Opera – Minnie Driver
“Million Voices” from Hotel Rwanda – Wyclef Jean
“Old Habits Die Hard” from Alfie – Mick Jagger & Dave Stewart
Will Win: “Old Habits Die Hard”
Should Win: “Accidentally in Love”
This is an award that often goes to a sacred cow in the music industry. Bob Dylan, Sting, Phil Collins, U2. Okay, maybe not so much Collins, but he’s been around a while at least. Also, if there’s a Disney film it’s usually a shoo-in but that’s not the case here. So Mick Jagger, while not actually The Rolling Stones, is close enough and will do as an institution in this case. Doesn’t hurt that he did this with Dave Stewart, whose fellow Eurythmics alum Annie Lennox won last year for being within five feet of Lord of the Rings.
Now, I haven’t actually heard “Old Habits Die Hard,” but I refuse to reward Alfie. I haven’t heard “Believe,” either but chances are that it’s not my cup of tea. I only know I’ve heard “Learn to Be Lonely” and “Million Voices,” because I saw those movies but they obviously didn’t leave much of an impression. That leaves “Accidentally” as the only memorable, non-annoying piece of music on the list. But I still don’t like the video. Why’s she gotta dis the buff guy for the rabbit? What did the buff guy ever do wrong? Hell, he’s making her breakfast! That’s more than the rabbit ever did. Stupid rabbit.
OPV: 61%. This is simultaneously the number two most predictive category, and the number one most irrelevant.
Original Score
The Aviator – Howard Shore
Finding Neverland – Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood
Sideways – Rolfe Kent
Spanglish – Hans Zimmer
Will Win: Sideways
Should Win: Sideways
Original Score tends to be the most random of awards. It can go to the predictable (last year’s Lord of the Rings) to the out of nowhere (the previous year’s Frida). This year Sideways stands as good a chance as any. I predict a bit of a lovefest for the flick, and it might as well start here. Shore and Zimmer have won before (Shore as recently as last year) and Eastwood and Kaczmarek are just as likely, but the general good feeling about Sideways might put it over the top.
Article comments
1 - Eric Olsen
excellent work Dave, I now feel prepped - thanks!
2 - NancyGail
They don't always win Oscars from the Globes. And this is unique not only because it's live and unscripted, but television is nominated, too. Care to share your picks?
3 - Bill
Congrats on predicting Emmy Rossum to win a GG. It will be an upset. Beauty over royalty (Bening) and versatility (Winslet). But, how exciting if Emmy wins on Sunday (16th).
If she does win, I'm betting that The Academy will give Emmy that coveted 5th Best Actress nomination. The Academy likes to recognize fresh new talent (e.g. last year's Keisha Castle-Hughes).
4 - Frank
I don't know if anyone noticed this during the telecast of the Golden Globes, but when Meryl Streep was hilariously pretending to be upset with Natalie Portman for beating her out, the camera zoomed in on Emmy Rossum! It reminded me of that parody of some years ago: "They all look alike."