Once again, it‚Äôs time for the Golden Globes, or as I like to call them, ‚ÄúPimp My Oscar Campaign.‚ÄĚ This year, I‚Äôve chosen to add a little math to the mix by coming up with an ‚ÄúOscar Predictive Value‚ÄĚ for each category (well, most of ‚Äėem). This basically tells you how many winners from a given category go on to win the corresponding Oscar. (So, if the Foreign Film category has an OPV of 29%, that means that 29% of the films that win in this category go on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.)
Now, the OPV may seem low for some of the categories, but keep in mind that in 1951 the HFP decided to split up lead actor, actress, and best picture into comedy and drama in a concerted effort to make the math difficult. So now, for example, you have far more Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture than you do Oscar contenders for the same prize. To put the numbers in perspective, remember that all things being equal, any nominated film has a 20% chance of winning an Oscar. The OPV kind of tells you how much better the chances get if they win a Globe.
I know what you‚Äôre thinking: ‚ÄúEnough math. Stop geeking up the place and make with the predictions!‚ÄĚ
(As usual, I‚Äôm skipping the TV part. This is hard enough as it is.)
The Chorus ‚Äď France
House of Flying Daggers ‚Äď China
The Motorcycle Diaries ‚Äď Brazil
The Sea Inside ‚Äď Spain
A Very Long Engagement ‚Äď France
Will Win: The Sea Inside
Should Win: A Very Long Engagement
This is one of the toughest categories this year. Usually the winner is a fairly obvious pick with lots of buzz. This year, however, most of the candidates have that. We can eliminate The Chorus simply because it‚Äôs the only one here that hasn‚Äôt generated any. All of the others are high profile, but neither The Motorcycle Diaries nor A Very Long Engagement have managed to generate the critical traction necessary to win numerous critic‚Äôs circle awards. The remaining two have. Honestly, between Daggers and Sea it could go either way. Sea has the added benefit of a nom for lead Javier Bardem and the recent BFCA seal of approval. So why not?
A Very Long Engagement was simply one of the best films of last year. Admittedly, I‚Äôve only seen one of the other films nominated (Daggers, which was good), but I‚Äôd be hard-pressed to say any of them, based on buzz, could beat this one. On the other hand, the buzz on Engagement isn‚Äôt nearly as good as it should be, so‚Ä¶