Once again, it’s time for the Golden Globes, or as I like to call them, “Pimp My Oscar Campaign.” This year, I’ve chosen to add a little math to the mix by coming up with an “Oscar Predictive Value” for each category (well, most of ‘em). This basically tells you how many winners from a given category go on to win the corresponding Oscar. (So, if the Foreign Film category has an OPV of 29%, that means that 29% of the films that win in this category go on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.)
Now, the OPV may seem low for some of the categories, but keep in mind that in 1951 the HFP decided to split up lead actor, actress, and best picture into comedy and drama in a concerted effort to make the math difficult. So now, for example, you have far more Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture than you do Oscar contenders for the same prize. To put the numbers in perspective, remember that all things being equal, any nominated film has a 20% chance of winning an Oscar. The OPV kind of tells you how much better the chances get if they win a Globe.
I know what you’re thinking: “Enough math. Stop geeking up the place and make with the predictions!”
(As usual, I’m skipping the TV part. This is hard enough as it is.)
Foreign Film
The Chorus – France
House of Flying Daggers – China
The Motorcycle Diaries – Brazil
The Sea Inside – Spain
A Very Long Engagement – France
Will Win: The Sea Inside
Should Win: A Very Long Engagement
This is one of the toughest categories this year. Usually the winner is a fairly obvious pick with lots of buzz. This year, however, most of the candidates have that. We can eliminate The Chorus simply because it’s the only one here that hasn’t generated any. All of the others are high profile, but neither The Motorcycle Diaries nor A Very Long Engagement have managed to generate the critical traction necessary to win numerous critic’s circle awards. The remaining two have. Honestly, between Daggers and Sea it could go either way. Sea has the added benefit of a nom for lead Javier Bardem and the recent BFCA seal of approval. So why not?
A Very Long Engagement was simply one of the best films of last year. Admittedly, I’ve only seen one of the other films nominated (Daggers, which was good), but I’d be hard-pressed to say any of them, based on buzz, could beat this one. On the other hand, the buzz on Engagement isn’t nearly as good as it should be, so…
Article comments
1 - Eric Olsen
excellent work Dave, I now feel prepped - thanks!
2 - NancyGail
They don't always win Oscars from the Globes. And this is unique not only because it's live and unscripted, but television is nominated, too. Care to share your picks?
3 - Bill
Congrats on predicting Emmy Rossum to win a GG. It will be an upset. Beauty over royalty (Bening) and versatility (Winslet). But, how exciting if Emmy wins on Sunday (16th).
If she does win, I'm betting that The Academy will give Emmy that coveted 5th Best Actress nomination. The Academy likes to recognize fresh new talent (e.g. last year's Keisha Castle-Hughes).
4 - Frank
I don't know if anyone noticed this during the telecast of the Golden Globes, but when Meryl Streep was hilariously pretending to be upset with Natalie Portman for beating her out, the camera zoomed in on Emmy Rossum! It reminded me of that parody of some years ago: "They all look alike."