Golden Globes Preview

Once again, it’s time for the Golden Globes, or as I like to call them, “Pimp My Oscar Campaign.” This year, I’ve chosen to add a little math to the mix by coming up with an “Oscar Predictive Value” for each category (well, most of ‘em). This basically tells you how many winners from a given category go on to win the corresponding Oscar. (So, if the Foreign Film category has an OPV of 29%, that means that 29% of the films that win in this category go on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.)

Now, the OPV may seem low for some of the categories, but keep in mind that in 1951 the HFP decided to split up lead actor, actress, and best picture into comedy and drama in a concerted effort to make the math difficult. So now, for example, you have far more Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture than you do Oscar contenders for the same prize. To put the numbers in perspective, remember that all things being equal, any nominated film has a 20% chance of winning an Oscar. The OPV kind of tells you how much better the chances get if they win a Globe.

I know what you’re thinking: “Enough math. Stop geeking up the place and make with the predictions!”

(As usual, I’m skipping the TV part. This is hard enough as it is.)

Foreign Film

The Chorus – France
House of Flying Daggers – China
The Motorcycle Diaries – Brazil
The Sea Inside – Spain
A Very Long Engagement – France

Will Win: The Sea Inside
Should Win: A Very Long Engagement

This is one of the toughest categories this year. Usually the winner is a fairly obvious pick with lots of buzz. This year, however, most of the candidates have that. We can eliminate The Chorus simply because it’s the only one here that hasn’t generated any. All of the others are high profile, but neither The Motorcycle Diaries nor A Very Long Engagement have managed to generate the critical traction necessary to win numerous critic’s circle awards. The remaining two have. Honestly, between Daggers and Sea it could go either way. Sea has the added benefit of a nom for lead Javier Bardem and the recent BFCA seal of approval. So why not?

A Very Long Engagement was simply one of the best films of last year. Admittedly, I’ve only seen one of the other films nominated (Daggers, which was good), but I’d be hard-pressed to say any of them, based on buzz, could beat this one. On the other hand, the buzz on Engagement isn’t nearly as good as it should be, so…

OPV: Too difficult to calculate. I’d tell you why, but it’d bore the crap out of you. Trust me.

Original Song

“Accidentally in Love” from Shrek 2 – Counting Crows
“Believe” from Polar Express – Josh Groban
“Learn to Be Lonely” from Phantom of the Opera – Minnie Driver
“Million Voices” from Hotel Rwanda – Wyclef Jean
“Old Habits Die Hard” from Alfie – Mick Jagger & Dave Stewart

Will Win: “Old Habits Die Hard”
Should Win: “Accidentally in Love”

This is an award that often goes to a sacred cow in the music industry. Bob Dylan, Sting, Phil Collins, U2. Okay, maybe not so much Collins, but he’s been around a while at least. Also, if there’s a Disney film it’s usually a shoo-in but that’s not the case here. So Mick Jagger, while not actually The Rolling Stones, is close enough and will do as an institution in this case. Doesn’t hurt that he did this with Dave Stewart, whose fellow Eurythmics alum Annie Lennox won last year for being within five feet of Lord of the Rings.

Article Author: David Dylan Thomas

David Dylan Thomas is a Philly-based writer/filmmaker who opines voraciously about dem pictures what move on the screen at DavidDylanThomas.com.

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