You'd think after March of the Penguins I'd never again be able to work our flightless friends back into the title. But nothing's impossible. Except a win for Poseidon. To wit...
- Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
- Superman Returns
Will Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Should Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
For what it's worth, Pirates pretty much swept the Visual Effects Society awards and is kind of hard to miss what with being the top grosser of the year (and sixth of all time). That the other two are considered (unfairly in one case, very fairly in another) box office disappointments doesn't hurt.
Poseidon has one great sequence and Superman has several, but if you don't want to give it to Pirates for the Kraken or the Flying Dutchman, give it up for Davy Jones.
- Happy Feet
- Monster House
Will Win: Cars
Should Win: Happy Feet
It's gonna be a knock-down drag-out between Cars and Happy Feet, but in the end, Cars will out. It's got ten circle awards, including the first animated Golden Globe win ever and a BFCA. Add to that an Annie plus the fact that it's the number two box office grosser for '06 and you've got a sizable contender (which is the odds on favorite at 1/3). Happy Feet is no slouch with seven circle wins and a BAFTA, and it managed to place in the top ten for the year (bringing the total number of animated films in 2006's top ten to three - Ice Age: The Meltdown is the third). In the end, though, I think Pixar's winning streak will continue. The last time they got beat was the first time the award existed, and they lost to Shrek.
I never thought I'd root against Pixar, but Happy Feet is just more original. Cars is a well-crafted, beautiful film that is, in its way, Pixar's most mature film yet, but Happy Feet has all of that and a less predictable arc plus the most inventive use of music since Moulin Rouge. Perhaps I had higher expectations of Cars and lower expectations of Happy Feet, and they're both must-see flicks, but I gotta go with George Miller on this one.
- The Black Dahlia
- Children of Men
- The Illusionist
- Pan's Labyrinth
- The Prestige
Will Win: Children of Men
Should Win: Children of Men
Seven circle wins (including a BAFTA) and an ASC award should pretty much lock it for Men, but it's neat that there's room in this category for two films about 19th century magicians.