Anyway, I could give you a whole song and dance about who won what leading up to this (mostly Swank, a little Bening, a little Staunton), but the bottom line is if Swank can beat Bening in a movie that everybody saw (American Beauty), she can definitely beat her in a movie that nobody saw (Being Julia).
Now, you could make the same argument in reverse, but here’s the thing. When Swank beat Bening with a film that made $119mil less than Bening’s, she did it playing a woman playing a man. You didn’t need to see the movie to know that if she did it well enough to get a nomination, it must’ve been impressive. This time, Bening’s film made $39mil less than Swank’s (so far), but all anyone knows about it if they haven’t seen it (if they know anything) is that she plays an actress. If she does that well enough to get nominated, um…good for her!
Now, Staunton has considerable critical momentum going into this. Her performance actually got more year-end accolades than Swank’s. Her film got more Oscar heat than anyone expected. Actress? Sure. But Screenplay? Director? Oscar takes this film seriously, which leads me to believe that the issue at stake isn’t wholly political (for those of you keeping score, Staunton plays an abortionist). If it were, there’d be more of an attempt to marginalize the film. No, I think the issue again is visibility. Nobody saw it. Boys Don’t Cry made $11mil. Vera Drake, $2.8mil. That may not seem like much of a difference, but in Indiewood, it kind of is. Monster, another “small” indie that generated an Oscar for it’s lead, had made $23mil by the time the awards were presented. Money/visibility makes a difference.
Truth be told, I haven’t seen Bening or Staunton’s performance, (and the fact that neither is out on DVD is a disservice to the campaigns of both), so I could be wrong. But from what I’ve seen, Swank’s performance is the powerhouse here. If I am wrong, it’s probably in the direction of Staunton, judging by the critical reaction.
BEST ACTOR
Don Cheadle - Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp – Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio - The Aviator
Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx - Ray
Will Win: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Jamie Foxx
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