Here’s how I think it’ll break down. The Academy won’t really take Clive seriously. As I mentioned in my Globes preview, Closer is more of a New York than an LA phenomenon. Alda’s really just there as window dressing. The nom is his reward. Voters will figure that Church is young, and will get another shot. They’ll be all over the notion of (a) rewarding Freeman’s long streak of outstanding, overlooked performances (no, not Chain Reaction, the other stuff), and (b) having two black actors win awards again, further rebuffing claims of racism in Hollywood (since they all figure that Foxx is a lock for Best Actor).
This is all well and good, but I don’t think that there’s anything about this particular Freeman performance that demands attention. It’s no more inspired than his work in Se7en or Shawshank Redemption, both of which I thought were better films. What would I have given him the award for? Glory, probably. But I imagine everyone has their favorite Freeman performance. Perhaps “Easy Reader” on The Electric Company?
On the other hand, there is something distinct and impressive about Church’s turn in Sideways. And maybe that’s because all I have to compare it to is his work on Wings and Ned & Stacey (which, taken together, demonstrate considerable range). But I feel like he gave a more nuanced performance with greater diversity. Part of that’s the role. It’s less of a stock character than Freeman’s (yes Freeman plays the hell out of it, but it’s still a stock character). I feel it has more dimension. So, though I’m all about showing Freeman the love, taking these two isolated performances toe-to-toe, I gotta go with Lowell.
(Watch me reverse my position on giving out awards simply for an artist’s career in about ten paragraphs. You can probably already guess for whom.)
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening - Being Julia
Catalina Sandino Moreno - Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton - Vera Drake
Hilary Swank - Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Will Win: Hilary Swank
Should Win: Hilary Swank
Back in ’99, Swank took Bening for the gold, Boys Don’t Cry v. American Beauty. By the way, the other actresses up that year? Janet McTeer for Tumbleweeds, Julianne Moore for The End of the Affair, and Meryl Streep for, oi, Music of the Heart. Remember those performances? Me, neither.
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