This is easily the hardest year for me to pick in the past, um, four or five years that I’ve been doing this. I remember when I could just say “Lord of the Rings” over and over again and be right. No such luck this time. And I couldn’t be happier. This is much more interesting. And I’ll probably be much more wrong.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett – The Aviator
Aviator’s gonna get a lot of noms. Plus, Hollywood can’t resist a modern actress paying tribute to a legend.
Laura Linney – Kinsey
A raved-about performance. Her first Supporting nom.
Virginia Madsen – Sideways
Golden Globes notwithstanding, she’s still the most likely winner.
Sophie Okonedo – Hotel Rwanda
Every list has its surprise, and I think the SAG noms and the Oscars will share this one.
Natalie Portman – Closer
Her Golden Globes win couldn’t have possibly influenced the nomination ballots, since they went in the night before and she wasn’t selected for a SAG, but I’m playing it safe.
Best Supporting Actor
Thomas Hayden Church – Sideways
And he’ll win, too.
Jamie Foxx – Collateral
Four nominated black actors for the price of three. Yes, the Academy’s that shortsighted.
Morgan Freeman – Million Dollar Baby
It would be a sweet win, but I think Thomas has the edge.
Freddie Highmore – Finding Neverland
The SAG nom locked this one for me. BFCA didn’t hurt. Fills the “cute kid” Haley-Anna-Kiesha slot.
Clive Owen – Closer
This isn’t just about his GG win. He’s gotten a lot of critical love beyond that. He also looks good in a tux.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Mean Girls – Tina Fey
It seemed like a long shot, but somehow the buzz began building and ultimately the WGA recognized and now it seems like the phrase “The Oscar nominated Mean Girls” could become a reality. Personally, I like the ring of it. Oh, and she looks good in a tux.
Million Dollar Baby – Paul Haggis
Gonna compete with Sideways for second most noms. Aviator will probably take the top spot in that contest.
Finding Neverland – David Magee
The GG and BFCA are doing it. Why can’t the Academy?
Sideways – Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor
For the first time since Election.
The Motorcycle Diaries – Jose Rivera
This year’s foreign film that couldn’t get a foreign film nod (a la City of God). I’d put A Very Long Engagement in this slot, except that the WGA didn’t.
Best Original Screenplay
The Aviator – John Logan
Part of the Aviator package. Comes with Aviator playing cards and a commemorative Aviator plate. It shows Howard Hughes collecting his urine.
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