And, of course, I love it. But it's not as easy as all that. I love The Squid and the Whale, too. It just barely missed my top ten list. But Walk the Line actually made my top ten list. On the other hand, had Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang been nominated here as at the BFCA's, I'd forget Walk the Line like a political colleague under indictment.
OPV: Wanna guess? 18%.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
RUSSELL CROWE
CINDERELLA MAN
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN
CAPOTE
TERRENCE HOWARD
HUSTLE & FLOW
HEATH LEDGER
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
DAVID STRATHAIRN
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
Will Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman
Sometimes a winner is so obvious, it's as plain as the sunglasses on Jamie Foxx's face. This sitcom is called Everybody Loves Hoffman. Except...the five cc's who gave it to Ledger. There are two reasons to consider him a spoiler. One, the momentum for Brokeback is considerable. Two, who would have guessed that the HFP would go for Leonardo DiCaprio last year, or Peter Fonda for Ulee's Gold in '97? They are not always predictable here. I'd still go with Hoffman (1/2 odds) if I were you, though.
Ledger gives a career-best performance in Brokeback. It's unforgettable. But so is Hoffman, and he pretty much has to carry the whole film (with admirable help from Keener and Clifton Collins, Jr., sadly missing from this year's awards season). By the way, it's nice to see Terrence Howard get some props, even if he is the longest shot with 40/1 odds.
OPV: 62%. You more than triple your chances at winning an Oscar by winning this award.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
MARIA BELLO
A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
FELICITY HUFFMAN
TRANSAMERICA
GWYNETH PALTROW
PROOF
CHARLIZE THERON
NORTH COUNTRY
ZIYI ZHANG
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
Will Win: Felicity Huffman
Should Win: Maria Bello
If the nominations go the way I expect, Felicity Huffman is basically who would win the Best Actress Oscar if Reese Witherspoon weren't nominated, and in this category we have that scenario. Her 5 cc wins drown out everyone else, not to mention the fact that physical transformation plays just as well here as at The Big Show (Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry, Charlize Theron in Monster).
Article comments
1 - Trish
I loved your subhead! The tables make all the difference, don't they?
Actually, I think it's the alcohol that makes the difference. Everyone's looser. Thank God.