NATHAN LANE
THE PRODUCERS
CILLIAN MURPHY
BREAKFAST ON PLUTO
JOAQUIN PHOENIX
WALK THE LINE
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Joaquin is the odds on favorite (1/2) in a category where no other actor has gotten a single win from any critics circle this season. All the cc's have gone to "dramatic" performances. I like to think that Depp might be a spoiler, simply because he's 0 for 4 so far in this category (5 if you count drama), but he's 8/1, and I can't really argue with that.
Joaquin's performance here is outstanding. Much as Foxx inhabited Ray, he inhabits Cash and shows even more facets. Give it to him for the audition scene alone.
OPV: 12%. This is the least predictive category, and when you think of how much the Academy loves it some drama, you can understand why.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
JUDI DENCH
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
KEIRA KNIGHTLEY
PRIDE & PREJUDICE
LAURA LINNEY
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
SARAH JESSICA PARKER
THE FAMILY STONE
REESE WITHERSPOON
WALK THE LINE
Will Win: Reese Witherspoon
Should Win: Reese Witherspoon
2/5 odds favor Reese with Knightley next in line. Reese has won 9 cc's so far, including the BFCA. I can see the HFP dubbing Reese, now on her third nom, the next Renee Zellwegger, who's won twice already in this category. If you squint really hard, they kind of look the same.
As you can probably guess, I kind of like Walk the Line, and I think the performances (along with Mangold's vision) make the film. Like Joaquin, she does her own singing and completely inhabits the role, but it's the darkness she's able to find in Carter that makes her attraction to Cash's darkness (and subsequent ability to see beyond it) believable.
OPV: 20%. Again, Academy not loving the musicals or comedies.
BEST MOTION PICTURE - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
PRIDE & PREJUDICE
THE PRODUCERS
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
WALK THE LINE
Will Win: Walk the Line
Should Win: Walk the Line
Our tour of all things Cash ends here. Walk the Line is the odds-on favorite at 1/2, and why not? It's more popular and far more successful than its closest competition, The Squid and the Whale, which essentially has identical nods (actor, actress, film - Mangold, Baumbach, and the screenwriters are ignored for some reason).
Article comments
1 - Trish
I loved your subhead! The tables make all the difference, don't they?
Actually, I think it's the alcohol that makes the difference. Everyone's looser. Thank God.