OPV: 48%. Almost half the time the winner here goes on to take the gold. However, I think Giamatti's chances are better with the Academy than the HFP, at least this year.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
SCARLETT JOHANSSON
MATCH POINT
SHIRLEY MacLAINE
IN HER SHOES
FRANCES McDORMAND
NORTH COUNTRY
RACHEL WEISZ
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
MICHELLE WILLIAMS
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Will Win: Michelle Williams
Should Win: Rachel Weisz
Inexplicably, the two frontrunners in this category for every other award handed out this year, Catherine Keener and Amy Adams, are missing here. That leaves us with Michelle Williams and Rachel Weisz, who've racked up a few supporting wins, but Michelle has the advantage of being in the more buzzed-about flick, and a BFCA win (a tie with Adams, no less) to boot.
None of these performances (with the exception of McDormand's, whose performance I have yet to see) really stand out for me. Weisz's characterization holds up well under the scrutiny of Meirelles' intrusive lens, and that's as good an accomplishment as any in this field.
OPV: 36%. Not very predictive, and with choices like these, you can understand why.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
JOYEUX NOEL (MERRY CHRISTMAS) (FRANCE)
KUNG FU HUSTLE (CHINA)
PARADISE NOW (PALESTINE)
THE PROMISE (MASTER OF THE CRIMSON ARMOR) (CHINA)
TSOTSI (SOUTH AFRICA)
Will Win: Kung Fu Hustle
Should Win: Kung Fu Hustle
It's not just the BFCA that loves this film. 6 other cc's have joined in. Paradise Now could act as a spoiler, but I think this will pull through.
I haven't actually seen any of the other films on this list, but I'll be hard pressed to find another foreign film I've seen this year that tops Hustle. Except maybe Oldboy.
OPV: Can't be calculated because {insert complicated, boring explanation here}.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE -MUSICAL OR COMEDY
PIERCE BROSNAN
THE MATADOR
JEFF DANIELS
THE SQUID AND THE WHALE
JOHNNY DEPP
CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY
NATHAN LANE
THE PRODUCERS
CILLIAN MURPHY
BREAKFAST ON PLUTO
JOAQUIN PHOENIX
WALK THE LINE
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix
Joaquin is the odds on favorite (1/2) in a category where no other actor has gotten a single win from any critics circle this season. All the cc's have gone to "dramatic" performances. I like to think that Depp might be a spoiler, simply because he's 0 for 4 so far in this category (5 if you count drama), but he's 8/1, and I can't really argue with that.
Article comments
1 - Trish
I loved your subhead! The tables make all the difference, don't they?
Actually, I think it's the alcohol that makes the difference. Everyone's looser. Thank God.