Good Night, and Good Luck accomplishes similar goals efficiently, and maybe the only reason I don't give it the should is because I know Grant and George didn't have to write those awesome monologues themselves.
OPV: 70%. This is the most predictive category, mostly because the winner actually has ten chances to win an Oscar (what with the adapted/original split).
BEST DIRECTOR - MOTION PICTURE
WOODY ALLEN
MATCH POINT
GEORGE CLOONEY
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
PETER JACKSON
KING KONG
ANG LEE
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
FERNANDO MEIRELLES
THE CONSTANT GARDENER
STEVEN SPIELBERG
MUNICH
Will Win: Ang Lee
Should Win: Fernando Meirelles
What a tough category. Unfortunately for the other guys, the critics circles don't see it that way. 12 of them gave it to Lee, including the BFCA. The next closest is Cronenberg at 3, and he wasn't even nominated here. But it was such a good year for directors that he should have been.
As I've said before, Munich is Spielberg's Godfather, and how do you deny a director the prize for that? But when I think of pure direction, Meirelles stands out, even in this field. His bold use of color, angle, exposure, and shutter speed to create a world so dry and sharp it looks like it will make the screen crumble and/or shatter is mesmerizing. And his intimate, improvisational way with actors meshes with that style to create an Altman on X.
OPV: 54%. More than half the time the winners here go all the way. This year will be no exception.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
GEORGE CLOONEY
SYRIANA
MATT DILLON
CRASH
WILL FERRELL
THE PRODUCERS
PAUL GIAMATTI
CINDERELLA MAN
BOB HOSKINS
MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS
Will Win: Matt Dillon
Should Win: George Clooney
The smart money is on Paul Giamatti. He's got the lion's share of cc awards, including a BFCA. However, if you go with the theory that his awards are predicated upon guilt over his snub by the Academy last year for Sideways, that theory falls apart here. He won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy for Sideways. The HFP has nothing to feel guilty about. That makes me think about the next person down on the list, cc-wise, Matt Dillon.
As far as who should win, I'm torn between Dillon and Clooney. Both are great at portraying menace and creating nuanced characters. Clooney has the literal added weight of schlubbiness and normalcy, which is very hard for stars to pull off. Dillon has that vulnerability, too, so maybe I'm just bitter that Terrence Howard didn't get a nod as well.
Article comments
1 - Trish
I loved your subhead! The tables make all the difference, don't they?
Actually, I think it's the alcohol that makes the difference. Everyone's looser. Thank God.