Last year I gave what I felt was a fairly clear explanation of the math I'll be using to quantify just how much you should care about each category in terms of its Oscar doppleganger. In the interest of not re-inventing the wheel, here it is again, slightly updated:
I've chosen to add a little math to the mix by coming up with an "Oscar Predictive Value" for each category (well, most of 'em). This basically tells you how often in the past 50 years winners from a given category go on to win the corresponding Oscar. (So, if the Foreign Film category has an OPV of 29%, that means that 29% of the time, films that win in this category go on to win the Oscar for Best Foreign Film.)
Now, the OPV may seem low for some of the categories, but keep in mind that in 1951 the HFP decided to split up lead actor, actress, and best picture into comedy and drama in a concerted effort to make the math difficult. So now, for example, you have far more Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture than you do Oscar contenders for the same prize. To put the numbers in perspective, remember that all things being equal, any nominated film has a 20% chance of winning an Oscar. The OPV can sometimes tell you how much better the chances get if they win a Globe.
All clear? Then away we go...
BEST ORIGINAL SONG - MOTION PICTURE
“A LOVE THAT WILL NEVER GROW OLD” — BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Music by: Gustavo Santaolalla
Lyrics by: Bernie Taupin
“CHRISTMAS IN LOVE” — CHRISTMAS IN LOVE
Music by: Tony Renis
Lyrics by: Marva Jan Marrow
“THERE’S NOTHING LIKE A SHOW ON BROADWAY” — THE PRODUCERS
Music & Lyrics by: Mel Brooks
“TRAVELIN’ THRU” — TRANSAMERICA
Music & Lyrics by: Dolly Parton
“WUNDERKIND” — THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE
Music & Lyrics by: Alanis Morissette
Will Win: "Travelin' Thru"
Should Win: "Wunderkind"
First of all, has anyone even heard of the film Christmas in Love, much less the song "Christmas in Love?" I didn't think so. Anyhoo, this tends to be a sacred cow win. Your Mick Jaggers, Bob Dylans, and Stings usually take this one home. That leaves Dolly Parton and Alanis Morisette, both on their second song nod, and Dolly's got seniority.