The Big Five seem pretty much locked at this point, but everything else... Let's speculate, shall we?
Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Some would say it was her year. That was before the Golden Globes and the BFCAs.
Viola Davis - Doubt
Ten minutes of screen time that stands up to the two hours Streep and Hoffman get.
Rosemarie DeWitt - Rachel Getting Married
Kind of a long shot, but this was more interesting than matching the SAG noms exactly. Plus, I like Mad Men.
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
The one to beat, except for the actual one to beat.
Kate Winslet - The Reader
The actual one to beat. Finally.
Sorely overlooked: Hiam Abbass in The Visitor
Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Deserves it for the scene where he shows up drunk to Milk's birthday party alone.
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Not so much irony that he'll get a nod for playing an Oscar-trolling actor as inevitability.
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
He just doesn't stop being awesome, does he?
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Yes, tragedy probably makes this a lock, but I think he would win regardless.
Dev Patel - Slumdog Millionaire
A long shot for the gold. Film will have to settle for winning all those other awards like Best Picture and Best Director.
And yes, I've matched SAG exactly here.
Sorely overlooked: Haaz Sleiman in The Visitor. Yeah. I really liked that film.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - Eric Roth
Not so much an adaptation as a reinvention.
The Dark Knight - Jonathan Nolan and Christopher Nolan
Action screenplays rarely get this kind of love. Then again, they're rarely this good.
Doubt - John Patrick Shanley
A lot of people say this screenplay feels too much like a play. I say, "good."
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