Once again it's time for me to make my speciously-reasoned picks for Oscar night, which will actually have writers now, bringing it back to the same standard of quality we've come to expect from Oscar banter. Woot.
Last year I shot 58%. Not my best year. Fortunately, this year doesn't look even remotely as predictable.
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
- I Met the Walrus
- Madame Tutli-Putli
- Meme les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)
- My Love (Moya Lyubov)
- Peter & the Wolf
Will Win: I Met the Walrus
Should Win: My Love (Moya Lyubov)
In spite of an arty trend of late, I get the feeling that the political context of I Met the Walrus will sway voters this year.
Speaking of arty, My Love is gorgeous. An impressionist painting come to life. Now if I only spoke Russian. (It's also the only short here from a category vet - 3 nods, 1 win - so consider it a spoiler.)
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
- At Night
- Il Supplente (The Substitute)
- Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)
- Tanghi Argentini
- The Tonto Woman
Will Win:Tanghi Argentini
Should Win: The Tonto Woman
Tanghi Argentini has won more awards than all of these other films combined, which is pretty easy since none of these other films have won any awards. Even if they had, though, they'd still have to struggle to match Tanghi's 15 wins (three at one festival), a clean sweep with every nod resulting in a win.
That having been said, The Tonto Woman is based on an Elmore Leonard short story, and he's awesome.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
- Freeheld
- La Corona (The Crown)
- Salim Baba
- Sari's Mother
Will Win: Freeheld
Should Win: Freeheld
As with Tanghi, Freeheld has racked up far more awards than anyone else in this category, including a Special Jury Prize at last year's Sundance. More than that, I have a feeling that the film's emotional story, about a police officer dying of cancer fighting to get the rules changed so that her domestic partner can receive her pension, will strike a chord.
Just watching the trailer got me verklempt, so I'm guessing the rest of it packs a punch.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- No End in Sight
- Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
- Sicko
- Taxi to the Dark Side
- War/Dance
Will Win: Sicko
Should Win: No End in Sight
For the past few years, the highest profile (read: highest-grossing) doc has won this award, with Born Into Brothels' upset over Super Size Me as a notable exception. I see no reason for that trend to change here, with Sicko's $24.5 million gross dwarfing the next-highest grosser, No End in Sight, which only raked in $1.4 million.
Article comments
1 - handyguy
Taxi to the Dark Side is a very powerful movie, much more so than No End in Sight [and certainly more than Slicko]. It did win the Writers Guild award, so possibly it has a chance.
2 - David Dylan Thomas
Excellent point about the WGA. I'd say that puts Dark Side in play, but Sicko still has a considerable advantage.