If you're looking for potential upsets, focus on the women...
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
- Ruby Dee - American Gangster
- Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
- Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
- Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton
WILL WIN: Amy Ryan
SHOULD WIN: Amy Ryan
This is probably the tightest race of the night. On the surface, it looks like Amy Ryan should be a no-brainer. Eighteen critics circle wins, including a BFCA. But wait, who got the Golden Globe? Cate Blanchett, along with 6 other wins. And she's playing a dude! That's Oscar gold! But wait a minute? Who won BAFTA? Tilda Swinton, as a part of her five wins.
All this would be enough without Ruby Dee throwing off the curve completely by winning SAG, indicating the will of the largest voting block of the Academy, who has only disagreed with SAG three of the last 10 times in this category. Not to mention she represents the "career award" this year (and, by proxy, her late husband's career).
Even the oddsmakers are in a tizzy, with many giving Ryan 2/1 odds against Blanchett's 5/4. And Dee's odds are all over the place. Ultimately, I believe "Cryin' Ryan's" momentum will overpower her contenders. But just barely. Blanchett already has her supporting gold from The Aviator, Swinton is not what people remember about Clayton and Dee will probably end up being the fourth time in 11 years the Academy has gone another way (but I consider her the greatest spoiler, not Blanchett).
Of course, it would be awesome if Saoirse Ryan upset them all.
As far as "should," Ryan gives a pivotal performance in Gone Baby Gone. If she doesn't work, the film doesn't work. And the film works spectacularly.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
- Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
- Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
- Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
- Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton
WILL WIN: Javier Bardem
SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem
By contrast to Best Supporting Actress, the Best Supporting Actor category has been decided for quite some time now. We can pretend that Casey Affleck has a shot with his five critics circle wins and second best 10/1 odds. But that would be a lie. So would Hal Holbrook's dark horse career win premise, even if he is the oldest actor ever nominated in this category. Didn't help Gloria Whats-her-face. Not gonna help him. Javier's 28 wins (including the Globes, BAFTA, BFCA and SAG) and 1/12 odds pretty much sew it up.
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