The Queen has a BAFTA win. Moving on.
So why between the three most likely suspects do I pick The Departed, other than its 1/5 odds and a vague belief in the wisdom of crowds? Well, looking back at the last ten or so winners, I get a sense of stodginess. Not that The Departed is a stodgy film per se, but certainly more so than the other two. Here's how it breaks down:
Babel, too artsy.
Little Miss Sunshine, too funny.
The Departed, positively Shakespearean.
It's something I didn't really notice until just now. The Departed is very Macbeth. And that Shakespearean stodginess may just carry it into the winner's seat.
Again, due respect to The Departed, but Letters is the better flick. As well drawn as the characters are in The Departed (and they're not all well drawn - I'm looking in your direction, sole female lead) they're even better drawn in Letters. As potent as the action is in The Departed, it's more unforgettable in Letters. As lyrically tragic as The Departed is, Letters is, um, tragickier.
And Letters has more to grapple with. I give Scorsese and screenwriter William Monahan a lot of credit for developing the Hong Kong original and adding issues of class, masculinity, and ethnicity to spice up the story, but the issues Eastwood and screenwriter Iris Yamashita raise are even meatier and the experiment (to take the opposing side of one of the few relatively morally clear wars we have left) riskier.
Even if you strip all of that away, I was simply more moved by Letters than by any of these films (though Babel comes close).
That having been said, if Borat had been nominated, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
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