He won the DGA award.
See, the Directors Guild seemed to hate him even more than the Academy. He's only lost four directing Oscars. He's lost six DGAs. And the DGA is the best predictor out there. 90 percent accurate. So I'm finally comfortable saying it:
It's Scorsese's year.
Except it isn't. I loved The Departed. Don't get me wrong. But United 93 is a better film, and Paul Greengrass pulls off an even tougher task. When you're at this level, it's all strength of schedule, and to make any film about 9/11 only five years after the fact and make it in such a way that doesn't distance you from the material but rather confronts you with it in the most intimate way possible - cinéma vérité - is bold. To go one step further and not fuck it up is admirable. To go even further and make it near-flawless is Oscar-worthy.
BEST PICTURE
- Babel
- The Departed
- Letters From Iwo Jima
- Little Miss Sunshine
- The Queen
Will Win: The Departed
Should Win: Letters From Iwo Jima
Babel is the secret favorite. The unoffical buzz around Hollywood has a lot of people voting for it the way they voted for Crash last year. It pulled out a Golden Globe for Best Picture without troubling the water in any other category.
The Departed is Scorsese's comeback. His third or fourth comeback. Anyway, if you're going to reward the director, why not reward the film as well? Even if splitting director and picture is increasingly common, the trend is still toward one picture to rule them all. Besides, it's the most seen film in the bunch to the tune of $128 million, more than twice its closest competitor. Oh, and there's the matter of eight circle wins, including the BFCA.
Letters From Iwo Jima has all the grandeur we've come to expect from a Best Picture. And if anyone had gone to see it, they might have noticed.
Little Miss Sunshine is the other secret favorite. The Producer's Guild surprised everyone and virtually made the film a lock since almost every time they agree with SAG's Best Ensemble award, that films goes on to win Best Picture. Almost. Did I mention the Academy hasn't awarded a comedy Best Picture in 30 years? (Unless you count Titanic, which was high-larious!) On the other hand, you could argue that means they're due. It's also the second most lucrative film on this list at $59 million.
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