BEST ACTRESS
- Penélope Cruz - Volver
- Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
- Helen Mirren - The Queen
- Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
- Kate Winslet - Little Children
Will Win: Helen Mirren
Should Win: Helen Mirren
As Jamie Foxx and Philip Seymour Hoffman were to Best Actor, so is Helen Mirren to Best Actress. 31 circle wins, including BAFTA, BFCA, and the Globes with a SAG cherry on top. 1/25 odds.
And she deserves it. This is the most complete, engaging, yet understated performance on this list. Like Foxx and Hoffman, she creates a fully realized persona based on an actual person. Does the fact that it's based on an actual person make it any easier? I don't know. I think of Charlize Theron as Aileen Wuornos or Hilary Swank as Brandon Teena. Maybe that type of performance simply lends itself more readily to a complete portrayal. Regardless, it's the most convincing of the lot (with the caveat that I haven't seen Dame Dench yet).
BEST ACTOR
- Leonardo DiCaprio - Blood Diamond
- Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
- Peter O'Toole - Venus
- Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
- Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland
Will Win: Forest Whitaker
Should Win: Forest Whitaker
Forest Whitaker is almost as much of a lock as Dame Mirren. He's got the BAFTA, BFCA, Golden Globe, and SAG quadfecta, plus another 20 circle wins to spare. It's also the third in an increasingly long line of biographical favorites after Ray and Capote. The only thing missing is to call his film Amin. Will Smith is playing a true life character, too, but you've never heard of... um... that guy he plays.
Leo does a great job in Blood Diamond. His Scene of Menace with Djimon Hounsou is a showstopper. But there's only so much else going on. Gosling is fantastic in Half Nelson, but he gets overshadowed by a 15-year-old and besides, he should have won this for The Believer. I haven't actually seen O'Toole or Smith's performances, but they'd have to be damn good to top Whitaker's all-encompassing turn as Amin. Pulling off charismatic, intimidating, psychotic, and vulnerable all at once is probably worth the statue.
BEST DIRECTOR
- Clint Eastwood - Letters From Iwo Jima
- Stephen Frears - The Queen
- Paul Greengrass - United 93
- Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel
- Martin Scorsese - The Departed
Will Win: The Scorsenator
Should Win: Paul Greengrass
With 17 circle awards including a BFCA and a Golden Globe, I was still disinclined to predict Scorsese for the win. Why? Because I've been down this road before, and it has broken my heart. If Scorsese couldn't win with GoodFellas or Taxi Driver or Raging Bull, what chance could he have with The Aviator or Gangs of New York? And then something magical happened. Unprecedented, really.
Article comments