WILL WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman
SHOULD WIN: Philip Seymour Hoffman
When I saw Capote back in September I said to myself "That's a just-give-him-the-Oscar-now performance." Apparently, the Golden Globes, BAFTA, BFCA, SAG, and no less than 19 critics circles agreed. Now Joaquin Phoenix got the other Golden Globe, but that's not helping. If anyone presents a challenge, it's Heath Ledger. He got his share of nods and critics circle wins, but ultimately, this is a slam dunk on almost a Jamie Foxx level. Like that performance it's one in which the performer disappears completely.
And that's why he should win. I think that may be the hardest thing to do. All of these performances are strong (well, I've seen Strathairn in roles with a good deal more range) but none of them requires the transformation you see in Capote. And, near the end, to break through that shell after he's pretty much gotten us to hate his guts and show a hint of what emotion he might actually have about what he's done and for the people involved without going all Afterschool Special on us is another achievement altogether.
Here's a query. Who would win in a Capote/Ray showdown?
BEST DIRECTOR
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis - Crash
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Bennett Miller - Capote
Steven Spielberg - Munich
WILL WIN: Ang Lee
SHOULD WIN: Steven Spielberg
If there is a lock at the Oscars this year, it's this. (Actually, there are many locks, but it's more exciting to pretend). Ang Lee is walking out of there with a Best Director statue. He's got a DGA award, which already puts him at 90% for the win, plus the Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA, and craploads of critics circles awards. Really, his closest competition wasn't even nominated. David Cronenberg got his share of critical love this awards season, just not from the Academy. Now, if you wanted to be superstitious (and unbelievably anal) you could point out that the next to most recent time the DGA disagreed with the Academy, it was over Ang Lee, who won the DGA award for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, but lost the Oscar to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic. But that's just silly.
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