BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
William Hurt - A History of Violence
WILL WIN: Paul Giamatti
SHOULD WIN: George Clooney
Oscar has a very short or very long memory depending upon the timing. "Remember how awesome Jack Palance was in Shane? Let's give him an award for City Slickers!" Or, "Didn't we just give Tom Hanks an award for a better performance last year?" "Uh, I don't know." So, it stands to reason that Oscar could look to reconcile its slight of Giamatti's far more impressive turn in Sideways by giving him a statue here. At least, that's the popular theory. SAG seems to agree, even though they didn't slight him in the least last year, when, just like everybody else, he was awarded the honor of losing to Jamie Foxx. Everybody Loves Clooney is also a popular sitcom right now,to the tune of a Golden Globe and unprecedented Directing/Writing/Acting nods, so that's probably why he's the next favorite, odds-wise. But it's Giamatti with the even odds, and I'm inclined to agree.
Dillon could also benefit from Academy memory, but Giamatti first.
And don't count out Gyllenhaal, who pulled a BAFTA out of his ass last week. If Academy members want to see a Brokeback sweep, it's not that difficult to pull off. I think whatever degree of Brokeback-lash pundits (and Crash PR people) are predicting will manifest itself in Brokeback not winning every single award, as opposed to losing, well, we'll get there.
Giamatti was certainly serviceable in Cinderella Man, but he didn't leave the indelible print of Clooney in Syriana or Dillon in Crash. As I've described before, these are studies in menace and vulnerability, both pulled off admirably. And maybe it's the unfair advantage of a more spectacular role (Dillon doesn't get to order anybody to drug a guy and put him in a car and crash a truck into that car at 50mph), but Clooney's menace (and decline) is a just a bit more convincing. Honestly, though, I'd be happy either way.
BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
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