SOUND EDITING
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Should Win: Not Memoirs of a Geisha
First off, let's explain the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. Sound Editing, which involves taking all the snippets of sound you've got and splicing them together to make a coherent soundscape, happens after Sound Mixing, which happens when you first capture the sounds in question. At least that's the best I can gather from the Interwebs.
Prestige, or really the sense of it, helps in this category. If a Titanic or a Braveheart is nominated, it has a better shot than escapist fare. This year, Geisha's up for six technical awards, and has the gloss (if not the critical acclaim) of a prestige picture. By the way, this award is the reason that it's "the Academy Award-winning Pearl Harbor."
Honestly, both Kong and Worlds have fantastic sound. As long as either one of them beats out Geisha, I'll be happy. If I had to choose, though, I'd say Kong, for the sound in the insect pit alone.
SOUND MIXING
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk the Line
War of the Worlds
Will Win: Walk the Line
Should Win: King Kong
Again, prestige helps, which makes Geisha kind of a spoiler in my opinion. But Walk the Line has more, and after Ray's win last year, it seems like Sound Mixing in a movie with a lot of musical performances is something your average Academy member can probably wrap their head around judging a lot easier than how clearly they captured Mr. Tumnus' dialogue.
Again, Kong, cos, why not?
In our next installment: How many songs do they have to write to convince you of the difficulty of pimping?
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