WILL WIN: Brokeback Mountain
SHOULD WIN: Munich
Oh, let me count the ways in which Brokeback has this sewn up. There's the WGA win. The Golden Globe. The BAFTA. The six other critics circle awards. The charming speech about using a typewriter. Ironically, this is one category where being nominated for Best Picture doesn't really help.
The challenge of getting a movie like Munich to work at all lies with the director and the actors, to be sure. But the screenplay has to balance theme, personal decay, and a fairly intricate narrative. In this article, critic David Poland argues that the film manages to do all this with a traditional three act structure, which I kind of buy. However it does it, the strength of schedule is harder here than for the other four.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Crash - Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco; story by Paul Haggis
Good Night, and Good Luck - George Clooney and Grant Heslov
Match Point - Woody Allen
The Squid and the Whale - Noah Baumbach
Syriana - Stephen Gaghan
WILL WIN: Crash
SHOULD WIN: Good Night, and Good Luck
As with Brokeback, Crash has received a lot of screenplay love. WGA went with it for original. BFCA and BAFTA gave it thumbs up, and seven other critics circles agreed. Good Night and Good Luck and The Squid and the Whale, the closest competition, are left in the dust, perhaps because their titles are much, much longer. Although there is much buzz about Crash being a Best Picture spoiler, the reality is that this is the highest honor it will receive Sunday night.
Good Night, and Good Luck, to be honest, cheats a little. Some of its finest lines are cribbed from history. However, the rest of the screenplay holds up. And to hold your own in the same water as Edward R. Murrow is no mean feat. I have to admit, though, I was torn between this and Squid. That's one hell of a screenplay.
In our next, and final, installment: I honestly don't know who'll win any of the supporting categories, but I'll make something up between now and then.
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