I mean, really: "say it with flowers"---say WHAT with flowers, Renee? And what does Kenny Chesney think about all this? Just wondering.)
The fact is that American Idol this year was a close race. In the next-to-the-last round, Ryan announced that the contestants---Bo, Carrie and Vonzell---were running only about 2% apart. That's a squeaker when you're talking millions and millions of votes.
The last time we had such a squeaker it was down to Clay Aiken and the Velvet Teddybear. That was back in the American Idol stone age, however, when they still hadn't quite figured out the phone line (yes, singular and Cingular) and all that.
Look, if you have one line for each guy, each line has a capacity of, say, 20 million calls in 2 hours, and each contestant gets about (statistically speaking) 20 millions calls in 2 hours, what happened?
Well, obviously the lines maxed out. And, therefore, we'll never know how many votes each contestant would have gotten had there been adequate phone capacity.
In other words, if people tried to make 20 million calls for Contestant A, 20 million calls got through.
If people tried to make 25 million calls for Contestant B, 20 million calls got through.
Or maybe, in the case of Contestant B, fewer than 20 million calls got through because the feeder lines were literally jammed with those extra 5 million attempted calls.
Fox wised up this year and provided three lines per contestant for the finale. Also, for the finale, they got rid of that nice man who says "Thank you for voting for Contestant 6. Watch American Idol tomorrow night at . . ."---by which time the line goes to buzz because you're hitting the redial button.
To preclude the butterfly ballot situation on finale night, you didn't even have to remember if you were voting for Contestant 1 or Contestant 2. You could actually ensure that you voted for who you intended to vote for because either Carrie or Bo came on and said, "Hi, thanks for voting for me!" Cool!
Beyond the phone line situation, however, and besides the performances (yes, let's remember that this is all about the music), the true factor determining the winner is who held that number 3 slot.
Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Richard
Insightfuly, entertaining and thoughtful analysis. Well done.
2 - Lynn
Sorry Sticker, I don't agree that this was a sqeaker. I have heard two different margins one being 10 million votes seperating them and the other being 4%. Either way, there will never be a race as close as Clay and Ruben, because of the expanded phone capacity so they can't be used as barometer of what will happen in the record buying marketplace anymore.
3 - Natalie Davis
There are varying theories about the vote total. Another story I've heard from numerous sources says the difference was less than 200 votes. So who knows? I don't care: Bo Bice is going to have a great career, and as far as AI goes, that is all that matters to me.
4 - Sticker
Hi, Lynn--
Maybe I wasn't very clear on what I was saying: I think it was a squeaker going in to the finale. IOW, as Ryan said, the night Vonzell was eliminated, the contestants were only 2% apart.
Meaning Bo and Carrie were only 2% apart at that time.
I don't think many people who had been voting for Bo decided to vote for Carrie in the finale, or vice versa.
So their base vote likely remained about 2% apart. (This doesn't tell us who was about 2% ahead, Bo or Carrie.)
So what made the difference was what the millions of Vonzell voters decided to do with their votes.
If the majority of them went to Carrie, she obviously would win and not in a squeaker.
So to recap: the squeaker part had to do with the differential between Bo and Carrie's base vote going in to the finale.
As Natalie Davis said, it may even have been a squeaker at the end. But I think it's reasonable to assume that most of Vonzell's voters did vote and that most of them went over to Carrie, giving her way more than a 2% margin of victory.
5 - Sticker
thanks, Richard, for stopping by!
6 - Sticker
To Natalie Davis and all Bo fans:
Previously I linked to the fact that Carrie's single had already been delivered to radio stations for airplay.
Today there's a new presser that Bo's single has been delivered to radio stations for preview.
Both songs are now available for download (by the stations), so potentially for airplay.
Excerpt:
RCA Delivers American Idol Winner, Carrie Underwood and Runner Up Bo Bice, Through Musicrypt's DMDS First
Musicrypt's DMDS Is First to Deliver American Idol Songs Into North American Broadcast Market
TORONTO -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 05/31/2005 -- Musicrypt Inc. (TSX-V: MCT) (OTC BB: MCYPF), the industry's leading developer of user-friendly and secure music distribution, today announced that RCA Music Group chose Musicrypt's Digital Music Distribution System (DMDS) to be the first to deliver the hit songs from the new American Idol winner, Carrie Underwood, and runner up, Bo Bice. Nearly 30 million viewers tuned in to see the American Idol season finale capping the most watched season yet for prime-time.
American Idol, Carrie Underwood's version of "Inside Your Heaven" was the first song to be delivered for immediate download and airplay on Thursday, May 26, 2005, at 12:28 AM ET by RCA Music Group through DMDS. Runner up, Bo Bice's version was delivered for preview on Thursday, May 26, 2005, at 4:55 PM ET, and was made available for download at exactly 5:00 PM ET via DMDS as well.
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=87752
7 - Natalie Davis
yeah, i knew about the media prerelease for preview last week. (i am in possession of my download already). i have already preordered Bo's single. AND i have already heard Bo's version of "In Your Heaven" on local radio. so...
BTW, re:
Actually, that describes me to a tee. If the place doesn't have what I want, I go elsewhere. No substitutions allowed.
8 - Sticker
Already heard Bo on the radio? Great!
As for "no substitutions allowed" - for every generality, there of course are exceptions - all I can tell you is, after a lifetime of standing in ice cream shop lines, my humble observation is most people go for an alternate!
And so it goes for voting for AI . . .
but, to each his/her own . . . :-)
9 - Keefer
Great observation Sticker. Just no more Cher-ies Jubilee flavor...
10 - Sticker
thanks, Keefer.
Just saw that Bo is #1 for pre-orders for his debut disc (due in July) while Carrie is #16 on B & N.
Not a totally major player in record sales, but it does show enthusiasm and that people are making an effort to go wherever they need to go to get in line to buy Bo's record.
11 - nancy
IF the voting counts AT ALL, (it IS quite funny that the 'AMERICAN IDOL CD', released LAST MONTH, again has them in the way they finished, just like Season 2 and 3, hmmm) then I guess your analogy of what happened is quite possibly true for the RUBEN/CLAY duel AND the BO/CARRIE one. Also, I think there is a ANYBODY but the other guy vote. Some folks HATE Clay Aiken with a purple passion, (homophobes? cough cough) and would have voted for WHOMEVER was against him, even Will Hung, lol. Clay is a VERY polarizing guy, you LOVE or HATE him.
This time, there is a VOTE against thing for both, some can't stand long hair BO, but more seem to loathe 'Barbie doll Carrie'.
As for the 'was it close thing', Simon Lythgoe (the producer son of senior producer Nigel Lythgoe) supposedly said that 'if it WAS close, they WOULD have announced it, so it must NOT have been close. They wouldn't want to say what a landslide it was because that would hurt Sweetbo's male ego.
I Love BOTH Carrie and Bo, and thought I didn't care which one won, but have surprised myself by feeling sorry for Bo losing and wishing that maybe he SHOULD have won so a 'white male' could prevail for once!
12 - Sticker
nancy--
I don't think the final result was close, but I do think it was close going in to the finale.
Then most of Vonzell's votes went for Carrie and that was that.
Here's a nice interview with Bo that gives a good idea into his reaction to "losing."
13 - Eric Olsen
another great one STicker, did you get the email I just sent over?
14 - Eric Berlin
I believe you're looking for "Flux Capacitor" in the original post.
15 - Temple Stark
EB, I dare you to say "Flux Capacitor" three times fast in your next podcast. LOL.
16 - Eric Berlin
Hmm... the challenge has been issued...
17 - Eric Berlin
Did I mention that I have kick-ass diction?
18 - Temple Stark
Then try "Toy Boat" twice.
Then "Peter Piper picked a peck of flux capictors."
GRINS.
19 - Eric Berlin
I started in with the Toy Boat... then I realized, Wait a minute? Don't I have something (anything?) better to do with my time?
I'll be jumping off bridges before I know it upon request.
20 - Temple Stark
Darn. You're too smart for me. I have to find another monkey.
BIGGER GRINS.
But do you have a bridge nearby, by chance?
21 - Eric Berlin
Yep.
A Bridge Too Far...
22 - Sticker
I guess you had to be there? lol
23 - Temple Stark
aaaaah, Sticker. Can you say Toy Boat three times fast?
24 - Eric Berlin
Don't do it Sticker?
It starts out fun, and then it gets... icky.
25 - Eric Berlin
That ? should have been a !