While no doubt Carrie Underwood will bring a smile to the face with her rendition of the "sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don't" jingle, otherwise you can forget about chocolate, Charlie, Willy and Wonka.
What we need to talk about here is spaghetti. (Not to be confused with the little known and even less loved Guns 'n Roses album, The Spaghetti Incident, or with the delightful chewing-gum-for-the-mind Panorama radio hoax, "The Swiss Spaghetti Harvest.")
As in: What if it cost $1,000,000 to make a bowl of spaghetti and then only 3 people liked it?
That's pretty much what the old music industry does every day.
In The Future of Music, David Kusek and Gerd Leonhard's fascinating tome on, well, the future of music, we find this enlightening fact:
Approximately 32,000 new cds are released each year. Only about 250 of those new discs will sell over 10,000 copies. Fewer than 30 of those 32,000 discs will go platinum (ship more than 1M).
That, according to Kusek and Leonhard, means that only 1/10 of 1% of new artists is likely to hit it big.
1/10 of 1% . . . that's .001. That's so miniscule, Power Point probably explodes if you try to display that as a pie chart.
Clearly, as our music futurist friends write:
Most record companies today market artists based on a “see if it sticks” approach. They put a hundred different artists on the market, knowing that less than five of them will ever break even. They hope for that one act that will hit the big-time so that they recoup the entire investment across their whole roster of acts.
Rolling Stone, under the gloomy title "Record Biz Still Sinking," quotes industry suits noting that budget cuts have led to cuts in the number of people working to promote any given album. Just like with movies and television shows these days, the execs have much, much less patience with records that are slow to develop a following.
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Article comments
— go to most recent comments1 - Tan The Man
Nice article. Although you MUST stress the fact that these Idol contestants haven't gotten the massive exposure of over 20 million+ viewers watching them on TV. I don't think many artists ever reach that amount of exposure in a lifetime.
2 - Sticker
Tan the Man--
Thanks for the kudos. And you're exactly right: the AI artists do have a leg up b/c of the exposure they receive on the show.
Naturally that accounts for a significant amount of the energy they engage in the buying public.
OTOH it's important to point out that several of the AI finalists, despite having wonderful voices, good connections with their fanbases and equally massive exposure, go out and sell . . . nothing.
Tamyra Gray, for example, was an absolute AI darling, on several relevant scales. But she failed to translate that into commercial success.
So the point is: the show helps, but it's not guarantee. The artist still has to have "it" to make it.
3 - Tan The Man
And don't forget that first finalist... I forget his name, and I bet a lot of people have.
4 - Phoebe
LOVED your article--it's right on the money. Radio and the suits that run it continue to stick their heads in the sand while the buying public tells them over and over again with their wallets what they like. Since they refuse to adapt, they are headed for extinction. Can't happen soon enough, IMO.
Tan The Man-
"I don't think many artists ever reach that amount of exposure in a lifetime."
Most artists would kill to have the kind of exposure given the contestants on American Idol. And if they tell you otherwise, they are full of crap.
5 - Patty
And most artists, if given the opportunity of competing on such a program, would jump at the chance! Their juvenile disses of Bo, Clay & the rest are so obviously full of envy that their opinions mean next to nothing. What does an established artist have to be so envious about from a young singer on the way up? They are jealous that the AI kids gained dedicated fanbases, recording contracts & enormous sales seemingly overnight, without all the yrs of plugging away in poverty that most of them have to suffer. That is the jist of it. The artists hate the new kids who got to the top so easily & the radio industry hates the new kids who got to the top without having to go through the normal elitist payola channels.
6 - Sticker
Thanks, Phoebe!
Not only would most artists kill to have the type of exposure AI provides, more than one "big" star has admitted they would never have made it if they had had to prove themselves first through a grueling process such as AI.
In fact, many "established" artists can't even sing that well and they know it.
7 - Sticker
Patty---
Thanks for stopping by. What you said!
Also:
"They are jealous that the AI kids gained dedicated fanbases, recording contracts & enormous sales seemingly overnight, without all the yrs of plugging away in poverty that most of them have to suffer."
I agree that people think this, but I also think it's a myth that--
(1) most people had to toil away in the fields and sacrifice for their art before they made it --- if you love being a musician and you work in a guitar shop or wait tables so you can do gigs around town, how horrible is that? That's what you've chosen to do and many people would love to have the guts to chuck the rat race and do what you do.
(2) somehow, even if you do toil away in obscurity for some time, that makes your music better, more authentic, more "credible." Please. Lots of acts "toiling" away in the musical trenches don't have what it takes to make it big. Those that do, don't need to sing in lounges for 10 years before their music is "credible."
8 - Kekee
Something not quite right when a fan base organizes a massive multiple CD buying campaign to help boost the aritst's CD sells (Clay Aiken)Creatively all the extra copies are then dispose of by donating them to various charities and shipments over seas. This is a dishonest practice being done in the Aiken camp for the soul purpose of boosting his sells and "status" in the music industry. What ever happened to the general public purchasing a CD simply because an artist is GOOD?!? I guess fame can be bought because Clay Aiken is not that great. It's not right and shouldn't count when the same people are the ones buying up the same CD.
9 - Cathy Wolf
Totally disagree with the Clay thread. I bought his music because I liked it. As far as the envious artists who have toiled for so many years.....Kelly C. sang outside Sony? I think it was, determined to get someone to listen to her before she ever auditioned for AI and Bo Bice had been living out of a suitcase for 15 years trying to make it! So not everyone on AI has just had the TV exposure and they have introduced us to alot of great talent.
10 - lindakay23
You know, maybe the record business should get a better understanding of why their business is falling off. Most people don't like the music they are peddling. Most people think it's a bunch of garbage and wouldn't pay a dime to listen to it.
I had actually forgotten how much I enjoyed rock until I heard Bo Bice singing on American Idol this season. I'm older than I was back then, but I still know good music when I hear it and some of the stuff he sang I would never have known about because I had stopped listening to the radio about 10 years ago. Now I'm interested in pursuing some of the people Bo sang songs by, Los Lonely Boys, Gavin McGraw, Travis Trit, etc. and I am loving Bo's ability to play with such top notch artists as Lynard Skynard, Richie Sambora, Willie Nelson, Santana, etc. Music has come alive for me again this summer because of him. And I've got more money now than I did back then and can spend it on whatever I want! And I want to spend it on Bo Bice!
11 - Kekee
To the poster who totally disagreed with the Clay thread..tell me were you in on that multiple CD buying campaign for Clay's first album? The one that helped boost his album sells to over 600k? If not then I want to inform you that it's true. There was a well organized, massive multiple CD buying campaign thrown on Clay's behalf to help boost his sales over Ruben Studdard so that it would appear as if he instead of Ruben should have won the title of American Idol based on how many CDs he sold. His fans paid a *huge* price for his status. Because of what was done on his behalf (and continues to be done) I have learned that massive album sales doesn't always mean talent. Funny that he wasn't nominated for a Grammy that year, though Ruben and Kelly were.
12 - Jo
I cannot allow the comments about Clay's album sales to go without clarification. There were CD Release parties - 138 of them, in several countries - populated by Clay's fans who could not wait another minute to own the disk. He was #1 in presales for weeks before the CD release. We bought them at midnight, just like the Harry Potter books. The parties were organized on the internet. Some people bought extra CDs, most of them for Christmas gifts. Other people bought several and did use them to donate. However, what you all need to know that although Clay sold 613,000 CDs that first week, he has sold over TWO MILLION more since. The album is still selling and over three million have shipped. Another FACT is that the sales have been almost all in the U.S. as it had almost no availability overseas. Also, the fans who populate the internet are a small percentage of his fans, and many who attend his well-attended concerts are not even aware of the internet fan groups. New fans appear every day, in countries all over the world. Clay has been performing since he was 5 years old, and has paid his dues for 20 years, Musicals, regularly-scheduled performances for years, over 60 songs on CDs and hundreds of live performances, and will complete his fifth and sixth tours this year. The man will only grow in very well-deserved popularity.
13 - Sticker
lindakay23--
Welcome back to music! Many people have had your experience, but I'm not sure the industry has totally clued in to that fact yet.
14 - Sticker
Kekee--
The fact is that most artists with a fanbase that communicates---either through an old-fashioned club or on the internet---organizes stuff such as buying sprees, radio requests, cd release parties.
Heck, Jasmine Trias' fans just had a bunch of cd release parties for her.
Fantasia's and Ruben's fans also urged multiple purchases---go to some of their fan sites and check the archives.
There's nothing wrong with this and it's an expression of a fan's natural desire to do whatever they can to boost their "star."
This is especially true in the AI setting where fans come to feel (rightly) that they were integral to "creating" that star in the first place.
The fact remains, however, that it is very unlikely that multiple purchasing could ever account for several million copies sold.
Also, it has to say something about fan devotion in the first place, doesn't it? If people are willing to buy multiple copies of a disc, maybe they're really committed to that artist and maybe that means he/she will be around a long time?
15 - huskerfalcon
That "multiple-buying" thing is such a crock! Let's face it, the number of people registered on all the Clay message boards probably numbers between 15-30 thousand. Even if we go with the highest number and that each one of those thirty thousand fans bought--say, 7 copies... well, that would equal 210,000 copies. But that's hardly the case. I know plenty of fans who bought one. Even that inflated number is only 1/3 of his total the first week. Who bought the other 400,000?? Who bought the other 2.5 million???
There are some anti-Clay people out there who like to keep this myth going for some reason. I don't know what their deal is, but they spend lots of time and energy on someone they say they don't like. 'Weird' doesn't even touch it.
16 - Sticker
Kekee--
One further point: of course massive sales don't necessarily mean the artist is talented. No one who's half-way knowledgeable about music thinks that!
Commercial music sales are based on a whole host of factors, only one of which is talent and/or musical merit.
That said, it's also true that Grammy award nominations do not necessarily mean the artist is talented. And not being nominated doesn't mean the artist lacks talent.
Grammy nominations, too, are based on a whole host of factors, only one of which is talent/merit.
17 - Natalie Davis
True, Mr. Sticker. The main factor for awarding Grammys is popularity as borne out by sales figures -- which, as you have noted correctly -- often have little correlation with quality or talent.
18 - Sticker
Not only that, some people see a Grammy as a sort of a potential curse---it seems several new artists have never been heard from again after winning a Grammy in their first couple of outings.
19 - Tan The Man
That's because the New Artist grammy tends to reflect popularity rather than talent. How can you just judge an artist by one album?
20 - Natalie Davis
For many of them, their disappearance from the scene was justified.
And let's think about brilliant artists who have never won a Grammy (or finally got one in their later years, way after their best work was ignored.
Found this at JamBands.com:
The article also talks about Carlos Santana. His eight Grammys a couple of years back were for Supernatural, a great album to be sure, but what about his earlier classics? As the author notes, the award-winning Rob Thomas-sung "Smooth" was mad catchy, but what about "Oye Como Va" or "Black Magic Woman?" The difference: Supernatural was Santana's biggest seller ever.
And the recounting above presents only a few of those slighted, those who did achieve artistic greatness. Grammys and sales do not always reward quality. Every now and then, something awesome slips through, but all too often, what "credible" radio promotes and what the masses buy and catches Grammy voters' ears is not about artistic achievement.
So, rock on Bice Squadders and Claymates: It warms the heart to see people bucking the trends and seeking out the music that speaks to them, whatever "conventional wisdom" dictates. Kudos to all doing what they can to promote Bo Bice and Clay Underwood and other hardworking, talented artists being snubbed by TPTB.
21 - Sticker
Natalie Davis--
Many thanks for the great info!
Yes, again I say: Grammys, esp. for new artists, are not always very meaningful.
It always feels good to see someone you enjoy get the nod, but you still have to realize it's got an upside and a downside.
The Grammys won later in life seem more likely to reflect deep artistic success and contributions.
22 - Annette
Loved the article! I, too, found my love of music again due to American Idol and Clay and Bo, especially. Lindakay23, I echo your experience. Perhaps Clay and Bo are not the best singers to ever have been born, but if they fill us with love of music again and provide great entertainment who cares. I am having so much fun and loving music again.
23 - Sticker
Hi, Annette --
Thanks! Glad you stopped by. And welcome back to music to you, too.
It's all about the love of music. That's why I find even the choice of the word "credible" (as in "Credible Rock Radio") somewhat hilarious.
As I said in a previous post, that implies there is a big checklist by which to determine if a singer is credible or not credible. Whaaat?
That's meaningless. What matters is if music works for a particular listener.
24 - KB
This was a fine article...but I've known for many, many years that the music industry is just completely out of touch with what the public really wants. I've had the pleasure of getting to know some people who were signed by the big labels only to be spit out, despite being terrific artists. Back in the day, I used to watch the whole damned Grammy show. Now, I can't watch more than 20 minutes...maybe. FM radio is a wasteland. (Read the Blender article on this...) The bottom line, for me anyway, is that it doesn't matter where the artist/band is found, as long as they're good. Should Bo Bice be shunned by rock radio? Of course not. He's as good, if not better, than a lot of what's on the radio. There's even artists like Tara Slone (ex-Joydrop lead singer) who is on Rockstar:INXS. She may not win, but the exposure should do her solo album well, and I'm sure it made some people go out and buy "Metasexual" and "Viberate", the 2 Joydrop albums. I've followed the industry for a long time...and anyone else who does knows that these people sign the flavor of the moment. Does anyone remember Jennifer Trynin? Probably not. She was supposed to be the next big thing...that was, until Alanis Morissette's album was released on the same day in 1995 and Jen got relegated to has been in a matter of weeks. For years I've read about "major label bidding wars". Well, a lot of the bands that were in the middle of them were good...too good to last at places like Warner and such. It's why the industry is afraid of the internet, free downloads, American Idol...it very much IS a "my way or the highway" attitude, and it's certainly not the right or only way to do things. It's disheartening sometimes, but, great music always lasts longer than the jobs of these stuffed suits.
25 - uao
Interesting take on this topic, but I'm going to have to quibble on two fronts:
The math bit was an interesting point, but .001% is probably off. That 32,000 CD releases per year includes soundtrack albums, compilations, cheapo "The Countdown Singers sing the Greatest Movie Themes of 2005" -type product, etc.
I'd say the number of individual artists releasing product in a given year is substantially fewer than 32,000; probably closer to 6,000-8,000.
Of those 6,000-8,000 only AI's handful get to be on network TV twice a week; this cheapens the value of the AI #1 records. An indie band that cracks the top-100 has done something more remarkable than a popular TV show personality who debuts at #1.
American Idol fans seem truly over-impressed with sales figures, especially in a week where Sony BMG settled damages stemming from what the N.Y. Attorney General called "pervasive in the music industry".
In other words, I'm not all that impressed with American Idol's #1 albums; relentless promotion (and weekly network TV exposure is a lot more relentless than Sony's payola got them for J.Lo, Britney, Avril, et. al.) has the effect of forcefeeding an artist down the throat of consumers who are not particularly well informed about musical choices.
It's like going into an ice cream shop where 100 signs boldly proclaim "Try our Banana Ice Cream!!" in red letters while obscuring from view the menu of the other 30 flavors. A lot of patrons uninformed about their alternatives are going to walk out with banana ice cream.
Believing that the bigwigs aren't listening to the American Public when they buy AI product is disingenuous and delusional; they know exactly what's going on. They're selling it to you.
The Partridge Family had #1 albums too. It really is no indication of a music's worth. What it indicates is the pervasiveness of its promotion.
Bigwigs don't claim Clay Aiken has saved them because they know that Clay is another in a long line of disposable commodity that predates AI by decades. Frankly, Coldplay ain't gonna save 'em either, but they do stand better odds of progressing musically than the peoples' choice anointments on AI.
Remember: committees don't design anything well, be they automobiles or pop stars.
But I don't want to begrudge anyone's heroes. Bo Bice and Clay Aiken fans: keep on consuming, it helps keep the economy afloat.