Well, the Oscar nominations are finally up, which means its time for my annual pick list. So you're probably wondering: am I any good at this? Well, not really. Out of my picks last year, I got 2 outright picks correct and one dark horse pick. But hey, isn't it fun to see me get it wrong again?
Best Actor:
Will Win: Bill Murray - Lost in Translation was Bill Murray's best acting job. He was phenomonal. He deserves the nod, people like him, and everyone was talking about him in this role.
Should Win: Bill Murray--great performance, and he deserves it.
Dark Horse: Johnny Depp. His performance made Pirates of the Caribbean, and is probably why the movie was so popular. Why the dark horse nod, then? Probably because Pirates made too much money, and really isn't that good a movie. So Bill will probably take it.
Should Win, but Wasn't Nominated: Elijah Wood - I thought Elijah was kind of overshadowed, acting wise, in the first two Rings movies, but by ROTK, he was Frodo Baggins.
Best Actress:
Will Win: Charlize Theron - Hollywood loves to see the pretty girls make themselves look ugly (see Nicole Kidman's win last year).
Should Win: Keisha Castle-Hughes - she's part of what made Whale Rider such a great movie.
Dark Horse: Keisha Castle-Hughes - Whale Rider wasn't widely seen, but the people who did see it loved it. If there are enough voters who feel that way, Castle-Hughes might win out.
Should Win, but Wasn't Nominated: Scarlett Johansson — it was her give and take with Bill Murray that made Lost in Translation wonderful. It's a shame she didn't get a nomination.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will Win: Ken Watanabe — everyone I know who's seen Last Samurai, and every review I read of the movie praised his performance to the skies. He gave a moving performance in a movie a lot of people saw, so I think he'll pull the win.
Should Win: Tim Robbins — Politics aside, he's one of my favorite actors, and Mystic River is one of his best performances.
Dark Horse: Benicio Del Toro — I didn't see 21 Grams, but Benicio is a popular actor, and he might pull out a win for this one.
Article comments
1 - Chris Wilson
Nice job! I agree with just about all of your opinions here - for the most part. I think Sean Penn is a definite dark horse for "Mystic River" (Murray will win, however). Depp will eventually win, but for a role far more substantial than is comedic turn in "Pirates."
I think Renee Zelleweger will probably win for "Cold Mountain" and is probably the favorite in this category. I would also consider Alec Baldwin a dark horse for "The Cooler."
Peter Jackson is a lock for Best Director for "LOTR," but don't be surprised if "Lost in Translation" or "Mystic River" sneaks in for Best Picture. "LOTR" is not the kind of film the Academy has traditionally awarded.....
2 - felix
Not only does the Academy traditionally ignore films like LOTR, but there's also the fact that the trilogy is a product of New Zealand, both creatively and financially.
Not even a Hollywood product. (insert haughty sniff here.)
3 - HH
I think Renee is actually the frontrunner, not the dark horse. Marcia won too recently.
4 - Dave L
Seems we have a LOTR fan. I tend to agree on most of what you have to say, but I really cannot get over how much I did not like Mystic River ... so the fact that it even has nominations is bugging me. It had good intentions, but I think everyone in the film did a less than stellar job. I posted my own picks HERE (Confession: Struggling Screen Actor).
5 - Michael H.
I can't believe you liked that piece of crap LOTR so much. While they were at best ok to pass the time. Good acting. No way was that good acting. The part of Frodo and Sam were played entirely wrong. Did you read the book? If LOTR wins best picture it will be a travesty, and merely a reward for someone having the balls to foot the bill for that large a project.
6 - A.H
So ROTK was a bit false to the book, but it was a fine piece of work, all 3 movies, bringing such a piece to the big screen.
It absoultely deserves to take home the best picture, as the academy seldomly awards films in this genre.