Best Actress
• Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
• Angelina Jolie in Changeling
• Melissa Leo in Frozen River
• Meryl Streep in Doubt
• Kate Winslet in The Reader
Winslet is “due”, but does that mean she’ll win? Streep could win a third Oscar…yeah, like she needs it with yet another popularity resurgence thanks to her nominated film and Mamma Mia!. Hathaway could make it in as well.
Best Supporting Actress
• Amy Adams in Doubt
• Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Viola Davis in Doubt
• Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
A tough choice between Davis and Henson here, but Cruz has a good chance since the Academy seems to love rewarding supporting actresses in Woody Allen movies. Hopefully, they change their minds this year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
• Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
• David Hare, The Reader
• Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
• Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Beaufoy should win here. Morgan is the best chance for a major Frost/Nixon win. Can Roth win for a great actor showcase like he won for Forrest Gump?
Best Original Screenplay
• Dustin Lance Black, Milk
• Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
• Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
• Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
• Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, WALL-E
Black has good chances here since it’s the only Best Picture nominee in this category, but look for the memorable In Bruges, put back in the forefront thanks to the Golden Globes, to possibly steal here.
Best Animated Feature
• Bolt
• King Fu Panda
• WALL-E
Panda comes in a very distant second here. WALL-E wins here. The best sure-win besides Ledger in the Best Supporting Actor category.
Best Original Score
• Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Danny Elfman, Milk
• James Newton Howard, Defiance
• Thomas Newman, WALL-E
• A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire
Great work all around. This one could be anyone’s. Could Howard win after eight nominations? Will Elfman win after four noms? I think Newman will win after 10.
Article comments
1 - Clarence Yu
Very logical analysis. I was thinking about this the other day and thought that Slumdog would be the big winner but had no major actor, so it was either Penn or Rourke. Penn having won previously with Mystic River, it's really logical for Rourke to get it. And who else but Kate Winslet?
My only major disappointment was the complete shutout of Gran Torino. Though I might be biased as I am a big Eastwood fan.