2009 Oscar Picks and Analysis - Page 2


A tough choice between Davis and Henson here, but Cruz has a good chance since the Academy seems to love rewarding supporting actresses in Woody Allen movies. Hopefully, they change their minds this year.


Best Adapted Screenplay


Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
• David Hare, The Reader
• Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
• Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• John Patrick Shanley, Doubt


Beaufoy should win here. Morgan is the best chance for a major Frost/Nixon win. Can Roth win for a great actor showcase like he won for Forrest Gump?


Best Original Screenplay


Dustin Lance Black, Milk
• Courtney Hunt, Frozen River
• Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky
• Martin McDonagh, In Bruges
• Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, WALL-E


Black has good chances here since it’s the only Best Picture nominee in this category, but look for the memorable In Bruges, put back in the forefront thanks to the Golden Globes, to possibly steal here.


Best Animated Feature


Bolt
King Fu Panda
WALL-E


Panda comes in a very distant second here. WALL-E wins here. The best sure-win besides Ledger in the Best Supporting Actor category.


Best Original Score


• Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Danny Elfman, Milk
• James Newton Howard, Defiance
Thomas Newman, WALL-E
• A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire


Great work all around. This one could be anyone’s. Could Howard win after eight nominations? Will Elfman win after four noms? I think Newman will win after 10.


Best Original Song

• “Down to Earth” from WALL-E, Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
“Jai Ho” from Slumdog Millionaire, Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar
• “O Saya” from Slumdog Millionaire, Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam


A reduced set omits Bruce Springsteen’s Golden Globe winner from The Wrestler. Gabriel won’t perform due to the cut down performance time, but will attend the ceremony to watch “Jai Ho” likely win, adding more gold to the Slumdog tally.


Best Cinematography


• Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire
• Chris Menges and Roger Deakins, The Reader
Claudio Miranda, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight
• Tom Stern, Changeling


Will Deakins finally win? We’ll see, but this category has two main contenders, just as with many other categories, Mantle and Miranda for Slumdog and Benjamin Button, respectively.


Best Foreign Language Film


The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz with Bashir, Israel


Bashir and The Class seem to be the front runners.


Best Documentary Feature


The Betrayal (Nerakhoon), Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
Encounters at the End of the World, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
The Garden, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
Man on Wire, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
Trouble the Water, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

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  • 1 - Clarence Yu

    Feb 19, 2009 at 12:06 am

    Very logical analysis. I was thinking about this the other day and thought that Slumdog would be the big winner but had no major actor, so it was either Penn or Rourke. Penn having won previously with Mystic River, it's really logical for Rourke to get it. And who else but Kate Winslet?

    My only major disappointment was the complete shutout of Gran Torino. Though I might be biased as I am a big Eastwood fan.

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