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To Concede or not to Concede

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Last night I went to bed around 2:30 central, confident that George Bush had won reelection.

I was off by 14 – I missed both Wisconsin and Hawaii (my underdog), but over all, this election went pretty much how the Real Clear Politics averages suggested it would.

Should John Kerry concede? I wouldn’t…yet.

There are still a lot of provisional ballots to be counted, by Ken Blackwell’s estimates somewhere between 135,000 and 150,000 of them. In 2000, only 80% of those PB’s were counted. If these numbers are reflective of this year’s numbers (and I suspect that less will be valid, given higher voter turnout among first time voters), then we’re talking about 108,000 to 120,000 votes up for grabs. Bush’s lead is currently 134,019.

The numbers don’t add up for Kerry / Edwards, but *now* is too early to concede in my opinion, particularly for a Red Sox fan.

It could be that by the end of the day though, the political cost for not conceding will becoming increasingly high. Americans accustomed to instant gratification are likely to get impatient pretty quickly once the reality of the above numbers sets in.

The math doesn’t add up for Kerry, but I think he should wait for another 12 hours or so.

The election went pretty well, though, all things considered – record turnout, no hanging chads, only 84 slashed tires. Good job America. Regardless of the final outcome, you done good.

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  • Hal Pawluk

    Kerry should stick it out.

    It’s unlikely that still uncounted Ohio ballots will break 100% to Kerry, but let’s get completion this time.

  • andy marsh

    Hal – get this, I agree wth you!

    I think all the people of Ohio should get their votes counted. I’m not sure if I like the idea of waiting 10 days to count those provisionals though…

  • Hal Pawluk

    Andy – get this, I don’t care.

    I am surprised that the faith-based vote was so much higher than the fact-based vote.

    If nothing else, this election underscores the inadequacy of our education system.

  • andy marsh

    You’re absolutely right Hal…the fact that 48 percent of this country voted for kerry is amazing to me! It really does say something about the education system in this country!

  • Mac Diva

    It says our education system turns out people who vote against their own interests. People who mainly vote their hatred of their fellow Americans. See Comment above for a specimen.

  • MCH

    I am a liberal democrat who voted for Kerry – My guy lost because the other guy got more votes – Although I strongly dislike George Bush and totally disagree with his invasion of Iraq, it’s time to move past the election and get back to working on what’s best for the country – At the top of my priority list is, someway, somehow bringing our brave troops back home safe and sound