Last night I went to bed around 2:30 central, confident that George Bush had won reelection.
I was off by 14 – I missed both Wisconsin and Hawaii (my underdog), but over all, this election went pretty much how the Real Clear Politics averages suggested it would.
Should John Kerry concede? I wouldn’t…yet.
There are still a lot of provisional ballots to be counted, by Ken Blackwell’s estimates somewhere between 135,000 and 150,000 of them. In 2000, only 80% of those PB’s were counted. If these numbers are reflective of this year’s numbers (and I suspect that less will be valid, given higher voter turnout among first time voters), then we’re talking about 108,000 to 120,000 votes up for grabs. Bush’s lead is currently 134,019.
The numbers don’t add up for Kerry / Edwards, but *now* is too early to concede in my opinion, particularly for a Red Sox fan.
It could be that by the end of the day though, the political cost for not conceding will becoming increasingly high. Americans accustomed to instant gratification are likely to get impatient pretty quickly once the reality of the above numbers sets in.
The math doesn’t add up for Kerry, but I think he should wait for another 12 hours or so.
The election went pretty well, though, all things considered – record turnout, no hanging chads, only 84 slashed tires. Good job America. Regardless of the final outcome, you done good.
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