In the light on the obviously ineffective nuclear negotiations with Iran, six other Arab states decided they want to be nuclear powers: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, UAE, and Saudi Arabia all have announced plans to start working on nuclear technology. The implication is that this "peaceful" research, well within the "sovereign rights" of these nations, will be used for nuclear weapons. For as much as people claim the U.S. has been shredding the Geneva Conventions, the bumbling over the Iran issue has led to an effective dissolution of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
This is the consequence of Iran's transparent development of nuclear weapons, the world knows it, and the UN isn't and can't do anything about it. Iran has thumbed its nose at the world, and the world shuffles around and navel gazes.
Iran knows they won't be stopped by the UN because Russia and China have effectively said they won't even allow sanctions, much less military action. The consequences of a nuclear Iran have no effect on China or Russia (as opposed to North Korea) and in fact, it distracts the U.S. and makes life difficult for them. A U.S. distracted and hampered by problems in the Middle East is a boon to Russian and China, and they know it.
Both the Vietnam precedent and current public opinion on Iraq show the world that the U.S. simply does not have the internal fortitude to get involved in a war that isn't over in a few weeks. Saddam Hussein knew this, which is why he planned the so-called insurgency before the war. He knew if he could run the clock long enough, the public pressure in the U.S. would cause us to eventually leave. Iran knows this, too, so they are playing their cards that the U.S. is too committed in Iraq and wouldn't invade anyway.
The rest of the Arab world has watched and also come to the conclusion that they can simply ignore international law, and there will be no consequences. No one takes the righteous indignation of UN bureaucrats seriously unless it can be followed by some action. The UN has shown itself to be incapable of action. The U.S. has shown itself unwilling.
Either the UN and Europe needs to man up and deal with Iran, or the world has a nuclear arms race on its hands — an arms race that will take place in one of the most volatile places in the world at that.Powered by Sidelines