Video on the Net, or VON, is beginning to cause excitement in the opinionati, that class of thinker and speaker who gets to call the next hot topic. In fact, VON is beginning to replace Web 2.0 as the topic du jour a trend that saw some of the better known pundits in online convergence scurrying over to Boston this week for the annual VON conference.
At the recent VON convention experts tried figuring out the future of online media and its significance for newspapers and television broadcasters.
Well here’s ten points they missed.
1. Newspapers will have shorn most of their staff within five years and will be relying on a new breed of writer/audio/video patch-maker to add to their online quilt. There is no point hiring people when you can get content for free. Journalists who survive this change will be doing the writing, radio and visuals alongside bloggers, podcasters and vbloggers who have mastered the skill set more quickly.
2. Newspapers will have a much reduced physical presence on newsstands and on shop counters as they deploy their online strategies and will realise belatedly that physical distribution gave them the kind of presence only the milkman and the baker dreamed of. The result will be a much reduced influence in their new online role.
3. Wikipedia or an equivalent will become the Daily Delphic aggregating “authority” from around the web. Newspapers are well placed to be part of the Daily Delphic but so too are news broadcasters, A list bloggers, specialist bloggers and niche meme aggregators.
4. What you know will become more a case of what can you believe and who else believes it too. Confusion and uncertainty will have an impact on social and political life.
5. That means online affiliations will be crucial to a sense of certainty and it will be embedded in virtual and animated worlds like Second Life. What we know and feel comfortable with will be nourished in a fake world.
6. As all information will be free to the end-user, everybody in news production will have to go to the advertiser-pool for every cent that it takes. News bureaux around the world wilil close and the authoratitive “source” will become the local blogger-pool.
7. Television companies will go shock-jock, increasingly focusing on the bizarre and the celebrity as talent moves onto the web as part of the creatives-pool. But they have to comepte with vlogs that can do shocking much worse and hence much better.
8. The television set will be given over to individual and group creativity. In five years time the TV becomes a tool in the house where we carve out a pattern of interaction and creative endeavour, co-building new applications such as our own e-democracy dossiers that compile and deliver messages to erring politicians or we’ll be cobuilding our own games hacked from content that’s out there. Making video clips for YouTube will be passe.
9. Every major organisation and many minor ones have their own audio-visual production facilities and many own channels. The sports network will be run by Adidas, Puma, Nike and Reebok with no need of content and distribution intermediaries.
10. Recommenders will become a new profession.