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Ten Amazingly Accurate Tech Predictions for 2010

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After having a grand old year in 2009 where exactly 5 of my 10 predictions came true, I decided that it is time to try it again, this time for 2010 (though I was tempted to re-predict for 2009, but then realized that I would still mess it up). Some of these predictions are for fun, some are obvious, and some are outright insane. That said, however, I will do my best to avoid the detection of 'the evil companies out to get me' and finish better than last year. Either way, I hope that you will enjoy my view of what technology will be released in the coming year.

1: No More Logins!!
With Twitter, Facebook, and Google Accounts becoming synonymous with the Internet, I expect shared logins to become the norm. Linking a new site with your current Web persona, you will be able to log onto only one site (say, Facebook or Twitter) and then use that to access all of your other sites. This will eliminate the need for reference pages of user names and passwords, and generally make your life more simple. As we Americans love our laziness, I can't not see this occurring soon.
Barga's Odds: 110% (I like Yogi Berra)

2: Google Faces an Anti-Trust Suit, Microsoft Will Be a Plaintiff
We all know that Google is creating a massive empire of our information, data, and search queries (which, I am sure, a psychologist would love to play with). However, with more and more market share and purchases, Google is going to become the massive entity that Microsoft was in the mid-'90s, and the are finally going to get nailed for it. I expect the Sherman Anti-Trust Act to be used against Google, and that the old guard (Microsoft, IBM, Yahoo, and…gasp…Apple) will all sign on to fight that monster in Mountain View, California.
Barga's Odds: 99.999991%

3: Apple Will Release a Tablet
Sure, I predicted this last year, and missed it, but I am willing to risk my honor on trying it again. The current predictions are that this tablet will be announced on the 27th of January (cutting it close here) and will be available later this year. I believe that the tablet will be called an 'iSlate' and function very similar to the iPhone, but with more options. Of course, like all Apple products, it will have an absurd price tag.

FYI, I still think that all of the information released, denied, and then ignored is a secret plan by Apple to create the best marketing for an item ever invented by mankind.
Barga's Odds: 96.5348%

4: Bing Will Continue to Gain Market Share
Released last year with a slew of commercials, Bing was Microsoft's newest attempt to capture the Internet search market. The new site did exactly what it was supposed to do, and it carved a small hole out of Google's massive server farm. That said, however, Google is still the dominating force in Internet searching. I expect Bing to continue to grow this year, as people get more and more annoyed by the ads, bad search results, and content farms that plague Google.
Barga's Odds: 92.5%

5: 4G Devices Will Expand and Grow, Even Without the Needed Technology
After being ignored in the current AT&T/Verizon phone war (there's a map for that), Sprint started to brag about its amazing 4G network. With 3G becoming the norm on new phones, the other providers will jump on that bandwagon as well. I expect to see phones that offer "4G options", and the networks to argue that they have the best "4G system" in place. Of course, the fact that a 4G network does not exist, nor is there even a set standard, will not stop them. After all, the American population still thinks that these companies have a true "3G network."

Barga's Odds: 88%

6: Amazon, Sony, and Barnes & Noble Will Duke It Out Over the E-Reader Market
After the initial success of the Kindle by Amazon, a large number of companies started popping out their own iterations of the electronic book reader. As of now, three companies have emerged and leapt into the front of the pack. With three competitors, a price war seems to be in order. With this war brewing, I expect the prices of e-books, as well of that of the readers, to drop significantly this year. I fully expect to be able to get e-readers on the cheap, and with much better technology in 2010.
Barga's Odds: 87.5%

7: Google Will Release a Netbook
Following Chrome's official launch as an OS, and the success of an Apple Tablet (their version of a netbook), I fully expect Google to release their own mini-computer. This netbook will be low in price and power, but running a Linux-based OS, it will fit perfectly for college and high school students. I fully expect the netbook to take a fair bit of market share, and to keep Google's stock high (until that lawsuit I keep talking about).
Barga's Odds: 75%

8: The Big Three Announce New Consoles
With sales dwindling as the recession takes hold, the big three gaming companies (Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft) will react by trying to stimulate the market. They will release new games and toys, and will announce their newest consoles. Microsoft will announce a new Xbox (720 I hope) with a larger hard drive, the ability to use Bluetooth, and a Blu-ray player. Sony will announce a PS4, which will probably be the PS3 in a better body, with a better processor. Nintendo will announce their Wii2, which will be the exact same, except it will support 720i and have a hard drive. The public will love the announcements, and I expect to see them come out around Christmas shopping time.
Barga's Odds: 70%

9: Apple Admits That They Screwed Up, Fixes the App Market
In an area where I have a great interest, Apple will finally work to fix one of the biggest mistakes with their iTunes-iPhone system. Currently, there are millions of Apps that you can download, but most of them are as useful as a turd wrapped in shiny paper (to my disappointment, that is not the name of a real application). It is far too hard to locate and download useful or great apps (unless you read my iWant feature) and that is a shame. I expect Apple to fix this and allow a full rating system, which uses other users to help match your opinions. Think of it as Netflix for the App Store.
Barga's Odds: 65%

10: The Cloud Will Die
Yeah, I know that this will not happen, but I still can harbor hope that that damn cloud will be shot down. I do not like the idea that one company can have all of my data, my contacts, and even my phone records. Of course, with more and more companies using Google Docs to run their business, it is clear that mainstream America is against my position, and that they don't care about their trade secrets. In all honesty, I expect the Cloud to continue to grow, but I hope that it doesn't.
Barga's Odds: .000000000057%

Well folks, there you have it. These are ten of the changes in technology that I expect to happen in 2010. Some of these will probably happen, some of them will not, but they should all be interesting to think about. Let me know what you think that I missed, what should be altered, or how clinically insane I am.

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About Robert M. Barga

  • http://blogcritics.org/scitech/ Mark Buckingham

    1. Probably
    2. Debatable, but I think it’s unlikely
    3. Practically a given.
    4. Maybe
    5. Probably, for exactly the reasons given.
    6. Likely
    7. Not Unlikely
    8. No. While I don’t doubt that these companies will release new software and potentially even new hardware (accessories, expansions, new ways to play, Microsoft will churn out another ridiculously overpriced HDD, etc.), the likelihood of them officially announcing new incremental consoles is virtually zero.

    Rumors may spread of so-and-so working on the next device, but that’s practically a given; development of the next hardware begins as soon as (if not before) the current gen stuff launches, often in the form of “Well, we can’t quite do this practically or affordably now, so put it on the list for next gen.”

    Why am I so sure? The five-year hardware cycle has yet to be broken prematurely, except by Microsoft short-changing the original Xbox to be first to market, and they weren’t (and to some still aren’t) a game company at the time. They were the wannabes, and broke tradition just to be first to market, not that that ever determined anything (the Dreamcast and Saturn were first to market, and were trounced by the PS2 and PS1, respectively). The only reason I can see Microsoft jumping the gun again is simply for that: to be first to market. Their abrupt dropping of support for the original Xbox doesn’t bode well for continued support of the 360, which would see a lot of people freezing their wallets as soon as an announcement comes out.

    Dates aside, the Wii is doing phenomenally (still) and Nintendo would commit commercial suicide by releasing another console this year. An upgraded one or more support for SD media and USB hard drives, perhaps, but not whole new platform.

    Sony is finally gaining traction with the PS3 Slim, and would also be shooting itself in the foot by releasing another console already. They need to break even on the PS3 before they even think about it. Furthermore, PS2s are still selling pretty well out there, yet another reason NOT to announce a new console yet.

    At best, I expect we might hear something about new consoles by E3 2011. Announcing the next generation doesn’t stimulate sales of existing consoles so much as it makes people hold out for the next big thing.

    9. Maybe
    10. Unlikely

  • Brian aka Guppusmaximus

    Is No.7 really a prediction or did you read it last summer on their official blog?

    No.4 – Bing would be great if it was actually accurate with its search results. Just recently I typed in “Toyota” and “Toyota.com” and their official website didn’t even show up on the first page. As for ads by Google, if you’re not using Firefox w/ AdBlock Plus & NoScript then I don’t feel sorry ya.

    No.1 – Considering that Facebook is looking to introduce a monthly fee for their service, I don’t see how they could have a passport of sorts unless Twitter and a few others jump on board that mistake train.

    No.2 – How is this a prediction? With the cost of touchscreen size and technology on the plummet especially with the success of the iPhone and the iPod touch, it’s only a matter of time before they incorporate their powerful compressed computer tech with a touchscreen. Especially with the latest news of a 22″ iMac touch on the horizon.