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State Polls (10-15-2004)

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Alabama – Bush
Alaska – Bush
Arizona – Bush up between 5 and 14 points
Arkansas – Bush up between 1 and 9 points
CA – Kerry up between 6 and 11 points
CO – Bush up 8 points, according to the latest poll
CT – Kerry
Delaware – Kerry
FL – Bush up 4 points in latest poll (Nader included)
GA – Bush
Hawaii – Kerry
ID – Bush
IL – Kerry
IN – Bush
Iowa – TIE
Kansas – Bush
Kentucky – Bush
LA – Bush
ME – Kerry up 2
Maryland – Kerry
Massachusetts – Kerry
MI – Kerry up between 3 and 10 points
MN – Kerry up between 2 and 7 points
Mississippi – Bush
MO – Bush up between 2 and 6 points
Montana – Bush
Nebraska – Bush
NV – Bush up 4 in latest poll
NH – TIE
NJ – Kerry
NM – Bush up 3 points in latest poll
NY – Kerry
NC – Bush

ND – Bush
Ohio – Bush up 2 in latest poll
Oklahoma – Bush
Oregon – Bush up 5 points in latest poll
PA – Kerry up 1 point in latest poll
RI – Kerry
SC – Bush
SD – Bush
TN – Bush up 19 in latest poll
Texas – Bush
UT – Bush
Vermont – Kerry
VA – Bush
Washington – Kerry up between 5 and 11 points
WV – Bush
WI – Bush up 5 in latest poll (Nader included)
Wyoming – Bush
DC – Kerry

Now, I just go to this site, and enter in the raw data. The numbers I get:

Bush – 296 Electoral Votes
Kerry – 231 Electoral Votes
Toss-Up – 11 Electoral Votes

Now, let’s assume Kerry wins in both “toss-up” states, Iowa and NH:

Bush – 296
Kerry – 242

Now let’s further assume that the voters in Colorado decide to split their Electoral Votes proportionally, so that Bush wins the state 5-4 instead of 9-0:

Bush – 292
Kerry – 246

And let’s also assume that Bush gets a single Electoral Vote from Maine:

Bush – 293
Kerry – 245

So. Bush still has the advantage. But Kerry is within striking distance.

Please add your input below.

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About RJ

  • http://none.com Bob A. Booey

    Despite the reaction polls indicating Kerry won that 3rd debate, it appears Bush has gained a small lead:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

    http://reuters.myway.com/article/20041015/2004-10-15T111056Z_01_N15223261_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-CAMPAIGN-POLL-FRIDAY-DC.html

    I’m really not sure what to make of it, other than to say maybe (for all practical purposes) Bush won that debate in retrospect — if not on points — since he got the bump.

    This might be bad news for Kerry since Kerry’s not strong where Bush is weakest: domestic policy. If domestic policy is a net win for Bush, Bush wins this election. Kerry has to make domestic policy and Iraq big enough net losses for Bush to carry the day.

    That is all.

  • http://none.com Bob A. Booey

    “Kerry has to make domestic policy and Iraq big enough net losses for Bush to carry the day.”

    That should read “big enough net losses attributed to Bush in order to carry the day.” Funny stuff.

    That is all.

  • andy marsh

    Bob…this is the deal…and you might take this for action. Being wordy, like JFondaK, doesn’t necessarily get your point across to all us dumb americans.

    I personally, like being talked to like I’m sitting across the bar talking to someone that speaks my language.

    I think Imus said it best after an interview with Kerry “I still don’t know where he stands”.

  • Vern Halen

    Yeah, there’s a lot of heavy talk out there – makes it difficult to understand either candidates position.

    As far as I can tell, it sums up like this: Bush think the war in Iraq was a good thing; Kerry isn’t sure if it was a good thing or not, but if it is a good thing, it wasn’t executed very well.

    Bush’s position is seen as firm by his supporters; his detractors say this shows he is overly dogmatic and unwilling to admit error.

    Keery is seen as flexible and open to possibilty by his supporters; wishy washy by his detractors.

    Six of one, half dozen of the other yet, as far as I’m concerned. Each of them still has two weeks to convince undecided voters one way or another with a revelation or a colossal error.

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