The front end of the New York rotation is locked solid. Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte aren't going anywhere anytime soon. But after those first three spots, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Chien-Ming Wang have all made their case for a spot in the rotation, the obvious problem being that there are only two slots available to the three claimants.
The decision features three arguments: to keep Chamberlain and Hughes in the rotation and leave Wang in the bullpen, based mostly on Wang's bad start, to move Joba to the setup role and feature Wang and Hughes in the rotation, or to move Hughes to the bullpen while pitching Joba and Wang in the starting rotation. All three ideas have their merit, but when examining the statistics it seems clear that one is the most likely to produce the desired results.
The biggest knock on Joba Chamberlain is that he has endurance problems, that he can't go deep into games. Those people who feel Joba would make a better setup man than a starter argue that he would be more effective in short, frequent bursts than pitching in his rotational turn and taxing the bullpen by leaving games early.
The fact that Joba has lasted only seven innings in a game twice this season is definitely a detraction to his usage as a starter, but when considering his statistics when he is in the game, it is hard to justify a move out of the rotation. In 53 innings Joba has a 3.71 ERA (best among Yankee starters), with 51 strikeouts, while allowing only 22 runs on 50 hits. Joba's biggest problem has been his walks (27) which have resulted in the high pitch counts that have shortened his outings. Joba's 4.6 walks per nine innings is one walk higher than his career average while his 1.44 WHIP also looks inflated compared to his 1.244 career WHIP. As his control becomes more refined over the course of the season — as his career statistics indicate it will — these numbers will normalize and his pitch counts will come down, allowing him to go deeper into games. And regardless, having either Wang or Hughes as a very good long man out of the bullpen (if that's what they choose to do) negates the negative effects of Joba's less than stellar endurance.
Chien-Ming Wang, just back off of the disabled list, has been outstanding since his return. Working eight innings out of the bullpen, Wang has a 2.25 ERA with 7 strikeouts to only two walks. His first three-inning appearance was his worst as he allowed two runs on six hits while still displaying good velocity and location. Since then, in five innings, Wang has not allowed a run and has given up only three hits while striking out five. Most importantly, his pitches have been consistently down, and his sinker is dropping hard, sharp, and out of the zone.
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