When a Six-Run Inning Isn't the Pitcher's Fault - Page 5

The misery ends for the Sox when Dioner Navarro pops out to short.

Let's recap this fifth inning:

HITS:  8 (Seven on the ground, one off the Monster)
HITS ON BALLS LOW IN THE ZONE:  4!
HITS ON BALLS OUT OF THE ZONE:  1 (Crawford)

HITS ON BALLS UP IN THE ZONE:  3 (1 on a bunt, 1 off the Monster)
WALKS:  0
STRIKEOUTS:  1
POP-OUTS:  1
LINE DRIVES:  0!
TOTAL BATTERS:  11
BALLS HIT ON THE GROUND:  9
RUNS ALLOWED:  6
RUNS ALLOWED ON GROUNDERS THRU THE INFIELD:  5
RUNS ALLOWED ON HIGH FLIES OFF THE MONSTER:  1
RUNS THAT CAN BE BLAMED SPECIFICALLY ON LESTER:  0?

That's not to say that Lester was perfect.  He did leave some balls up, so there's that.  And he did fall behind to the first two hitters he faced, which is especially bad when they're the #8 and #9 hitters in the order.

But other than that, didn't Lester do exactly what a pitcher is supposed to do?  He got one strikeout and one pop-up.  He also allowed a fluke double that would have been a fly out to the left fielder in any of the 29 other big-league ballparks.  Other than that, he kept the ball on the ground.  That's exactly what you want from a pitcher in this situation.  It's what every commentator says a pitcher should do with runners on base.  He got ground ball after ground ball; he just couldn't control where the ground balls went.  He also couldn't pick the fielders behind him.  Replace Julio Lugo with Adam Everett and maybe some of those grounders don't make it to the outfield.

No losing pitcher should ever face the media and say, "It wasn't my fault!"  But you know, I really couldn't blame Lester if he did.

The larger lesson to be learned here is, I think, that we have to be very careful when we start making assumptions based on just a box score.  It's something we statheads are often accused of, but everyone is guilty of it from time to time.  Instead, start considering the randomness factor when you look at the game reports.  Just because a pitcher wins the game (capital "W") doesn't mean he pitched well; it simply means that he was on the mound when the team took the lead for good.  The same goes for the losing pitcher (capital "L"); a loss doesn't necessarily mean a bad game, it just means that he allowed what turned out to be the deciding run.  In fact, wins and losses have such a loose connection with a pitcher's actual performance that I've all but given up on them.  They're not utterly irrelevant, but there's nothing a win-loss record can tell you that another stat can't tell you with more clarity and accuracy.

Article Author: Aaron Whitehead

Aaron, 27, lives in southern Kentucky and works at the local community college. He spends his spare time working in the theatre and cheering for the Braves ... against his better judgment.

Visit Aaron Whitehead's author page — Aaron Whitehead's Blog