In Saturday's game versus the Rays, Jon Lester got off to a pretty good start.  After giving up a two-run homer to Evan Longoria in the 1st, Lester regained his form and threw three scoreless innings.  Until the 5th inning, that is, when everything fell apart.  When the bleeding stopped, the Rays had scored six runs and had taken an 8-1 lead.  The funny thing is, those six runs weren't really Lester's fault.

How can a pitcher give up six runs and not take most or all of the blame?  You have to fault the defense, right?  Nope, not their fault either.  The Sox didn't commit an error in the inning, and they only made one little mistake that could be called a defensive "error".  If not the defense, then, who was responsible for those six runs?

Luck.

Very few people are aware of the great role that randomness plays in baseball.  Players and sportscasters like to pretend that every hit, homer, strikeout and double play is a function of skill, or at least 95% so.  Sure, there are a few exceptions, but "luck evens out."  So says the old cliche.

Well, no, luck doesn't always even out.  Yes, the longer the season goes on, the less likely it is that someone is just lucky.  It's easier to get lucky for 20 games than 162.  But there's no magical point in the season where all luck disappears from the baseball stats.  Some players have been able to maintain their performance based mainly on luck for a whole season, in fact.

Separating luck from skill has long been an obsession of baseball performance analysts.  If a pitcher has a bad game, was it bad luck or was it a poor pitching performance?  If a hitter goes on an 0-12 streak, does it mean anything?  Is Emilio Bonifacio for real (well, okay, we know the answer to that one)?

A great leap forward in the study of randomness in baseball was made by amateur sabermetrician Voros McCracken, who proved that — statistically speaking — a pitcher has no ability to prevent hits on balls in play.

If you've never come across McCracken's theory, it could shatter your basic understanding of the game .  Don't misunderstand; McCracken isn't saying that all pitching is random.  He's saying that a pitcher's actual skills rely almost exclusively on  strikeouts, walks, and keeping the ball in the ballpark.  But if the ball is in play — that is, put into fair territory without leaving the park — the odds of a ball being a hit or an out are pretty even.  Conclusion:  A pitcher has almost no ability to limit hits on balls in play; it's almost all luck.

Article Author: Aaron Whitehead

Aaron, 27, lives in southern Kentucky and works at the local community college. He spends his spare time working in the theatre and cheering for the Braves ... against his better judgment.

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