Regarding last week's Game of the Century: I so totally called it. The Colts were winning for a good three quarters, then their D-line ran out of gas. It was crystal clear what was happening during the first Pats drive of the 4th quarter. If the Colts coaching staff had the ability to adjust — bring blitz packages, for example — rather than just hope everything started to work, they could've held them off. Just like I said last week.
At least we now have an idea of a chink in the Pats armor: Pressure, pressure and more pressure. It may be too late to stop them now, but I'm sure Michael Strahan and company will feel otherwise in Week 17.
Can the Colts win when they meet next in the AFC Championship on 1/20? Yes, but they need to keep the pressure on for four quarters instead of three, and they need to improve their punt coverage. Wes Welker got way too much return yardage.
Lastly, The Colts really need to fire their crowd noise DJ. I will be surprised if the NFL poobahs don't hand down a summary ruling against pumped in crowd noise. Maybe the Pats have film of it they can use as evidence.
This week we are here to talk about the junior varsity — the NFC. But let me correct that. Overall the NFC is the weaker conference, but that is only because the AFC has two of the best teams in history. Eliminate the Colts and Pats, or move one team to the other conference and the conferences even out. In fact, the NFC might even have a little edge. So, while the AFC is a two team cathedral, the NFC is more of a bizarre bazaar.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
It's looking like the 'Boys are the cream of the NFC, provided they don't pull another late season slide. After all, T.O. is still T.O.; no telling what might set him off. And certainly Romo could find about 67.5 million reasons to be distracted. But the big difference this year is that Wade Phillips has the defense really whipped into shape as expected. The 'Boys are the only real point of excellence in the NFC.
While we're discussing Cowboys, I want to recap exactly what Emmitt Smith said in making his prediction of a Steelers victory in the Monday Night pre-game show:
"Know what Boom, the words of a good friend Isaac Holt used to say back with the Cowboys, 'I don't believe fat meat is greasy.' So disregard the seven losses that every home team has had this year. I'm going with the Steelers tonight."
If he would have just been wearing the shiny green wifebeater shirt he wore in Dancin' With the Stars we could call that performance art and be done with it. Mike Florio over at Pro Football Talk has promised to collect a page of Emmitt-ism for future publication. It's one of the reasons I get up every morning.
Article comments
1 - RJ
Great column, as always.
So, you don't think the Lions will make the playoffs, even as a Wild Card? I realize their schedule gets pretty tough after this week, but I can't see this team winning fewer than 9 games...and I'm thinking 9 wins should be enough for a Wild Card spot in the NFC. (Actually, I think they'll win 10 or 11 games, but I can be a bit delusional at times...)
2 - TheMurph544
Thanks for another great week!
The hyperlink for the money line spreadsheet is wrong (yes I really do look at it!). (For others: Just replace the _ps.html with _ml.html)
3 - david mazzotta
RJ, it's not just my ingrained Lions negativity. There is a lot of smoke and mirrors in what they are doing this year, by which I mean there is no objective performance measurement that suggests that Lions can keep winning at the current pace.
The only easy victory I see for them is when KC comes into town. If they beat the Giants a week from Sunday I may change my tune. (It would be nice to have a tie-breaker advnatage over another potential wild card.) Or if the New Orleans turn around proves to be a sham.
4 - david mazzotta
Murph, thanks for catching that. I was wondering about that one hit I got on the spreadsheet pages every week.
The full url for the money line spreadsheet
5 - david mazzotta
Great googly moogly! What a game! I swear the entire column is going to be about the Colts-Chargers. There are so many angles. You cannot overstate what an upset that was.
Even with that, the money line came out up a bit, mostly thanks to the Bengals.
At the moment the spread picks are 1-3-1, which is sad, but can be mitigated by if the Seahawks beat the 49ers by more than 10.