Santana, a starting pitcher, has pitched 33 times and won 18 games. However, he has faced 867 batters (almost 300 more PAs than Dye), allowed 179 hits — computing the opposing batting average to .221 — given up 24 home runs and struck out 240.
Johan Santana certainly has fewer game appearances than Jermaine Dye. But who really has more effect on the game?
Suppose that in Santana's starts — which have averaged slightly over 6 2/3 inning — the bullpen does not need to come into the game as early. In 23 of his starts, the 'pen didn't need to start facing the opposition until the 8th inning or later. That certainly does impact the effectiveness of relief pitching, and the ripple effect does permeate through his next start. But I've already drooled over Santana's second-half numbers once this month, so I'll stop with the individual stat talk.
(Note: Santana's numbers do not include the Thursday loss to Boston, so his ERA and opposing BA took a little spike, and his second-half record is a little worse. Just a little, though.)
On some betting websites like Doc's Sports, Santana is not listed as a favorite, although he is part of the field (odds: 24-to-1!) and is specifically mentioned as "entirely possible" to be voted MVP. On this particular list (which is dated September 8), Jeter has the best odds at 3-to-2, Ortiz gets 2-to-1 odds, Dye earns 15-to-2 odds, and Morneau and Guerrero weigh in at 12-to-1. If I were a betting man — which implies I have that kind of extra income on which to place bets — I'd risk a sawbuck on "the field." (Thomas isn't listed here either, which makes a field bet that much more tempting).
I say this while fervently rooting for the Detroit Tigers to win the division over the Twins. With no clear batting favorite for the award, Johan Santana should be this year's American League MVP. Wait — should? No. He clearly is the MVP.
Oh, and an honorable mention for Kenny Rogers, mayhaps.
Article comments
1 - sal m
you make the best argument for why pitchers shouldn't win the mvp when you noted that they only contribute every 5th (or so) day. you reinforce this point when you mention that santana averages less than 7 innings per start.
so not only does he play every 5th day but he participates in just a hair over 75% of the games in which he plays. this might be great for a pitcher in the current era of baseball, but it still pales in comparison to both the contributions to the team and the burdens assumed by the every day player.
and while the twins have a great record in the games santana starts, this record (which i think is 27-6) is not even in the top ten winning percentages posted in this category in at least the past 10 years.
santana for cy young, definitely. for mvp, not.
2 - Mark Saleski
when a pitcher is having a great year, his efforts have ripple effects that extend far beyond the "every 5th day" contribution...including indirect support of the bullpen.
it's not that simple.
3 - Matthew T. Sussman
Sal,
Every fifth day is only a good argument if on that day the pitcher and batter have equal workloads. Which is why I pointed out the comparative plate appearance stat.
Also keep in mind: Santana is 1/5 of the pitching staff, just as Dye is 1/9 of the lineup. Factor in bullpen and pinch hitters, and Santana still does more than Dye or Ortiz or Jeter.
4 - sal m
those stats don't have any relevance with regard to the fact that position players effect more games than pitchers. what part of the order an everyday player is of no importance in your above example and does nothing to diminish their accomplishment.
compare pitchers to pitchers and everyday players to everyday players.
especially when you consider that an everyday player's contribution goes well beyond at-bats, as fielding is a huge factor.
despite the stats provided, there's no evidence whatsoever that a pitcher like Santana "does more" than Jeter, Ortiz etc.
and the ripple effect of a good starter is overrated and minimum at best...ask robin roberts and bert blyleven.